*IMPORTANT NOTICE :

Dear Reader Friends, this is to inform you all that I will not be posting any BUY OR SELL OR STOPLOSS RECOMMENDATION and/or replying to any questions on my blog from 1st Dec 2014 onwards till further clarification. This is to comply with SEBI’s new Research Analyst Regulation which has come into effect from 1st Dec 2014. Once again heres my sincere thanks to my friends and all blog readers who extended overwhelming support in past 7 long years.. Thanks Once Again - BHAVIKK SHAH !!

Thursday, April 23, 2015

NILKAMAL LTD : GRAB AT EVERY LEVEL !!!

Scrip Code: 523385 / NILKAMAL
CMP:  Rs. 457.80; Market Cap: Rs. 683.15 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 205.30 / Rs. 505.80.
Total Shares: 1,49,22,525 shares; Promoters : 95,70,001 shares –64.13 %; Total Public holding : 53,52,524 shares – 35.86 %; Book Value: Rs. 310.10; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 23.39; Dividend: 40.00 %; P/E: 18.39 times; Ind. P/E: 31.37; EV/EBITDA: 6.80.
Total Debt: Rs. 268.81 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 885.10 Cr.

NILKAMAL LIMITED: The Company was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India. The company was earlier know as Creamer Plastic Ltd and changed its name to Nilkamal Plastics Ltd on August 23, 1990. Nilkamal Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells injection molded plastic articles and polymers primarily in India. It operates in Plastics; Lifestyle Furniture, Furnishings and Accessories; and Others segments. Nilkamal Plastics Ltd came with an IPO on February 1991 with issue of 18,00,000 shares of Face value of Rs. 10 each at par. The company offers various material handling products, including crates, pallets, metal shelving and racking products, material handling equipment, hospitality products, golf cart & resort vehicles, tool storage cabinets, ice boxes, fish tubs, vaccine carriers, road safety products, plastic formwork products, waste management tools, PE manhole products, and cold storage solutions. It also provides premier chairs, baby chairs, chair shells, dining tables, stools, racks, trolleys, school benches, sofa sets, tables, wall units, TV trolleys, cabinets and cupboards, drawers, bedroom sets, metal beds, wooden wardrobes, crystal chairs, office tables and chairs, computer tables, junior study sets, and planters. The company also offers its products to automobile, pharmaceutical, engineering, electrical, logistics, textiles, supermarkets, electronics, retail, food and beverages, agriculture, seafood, hospitality and catering, and other allied business. In addition, the company manufactures and sells mattresses; provides storage systems of metal and mass housings; and operates 19 retail stores in 13 cities under the @home brand. The company also exports its products to Middle East, Europe & America. Company’s subsidiary includes Nilkamal Eswaran Plastic Pvt. Ltd (Sri Lanka) whereby Nilkamal holds 76 %; this company is a leading manufacturer of moulded furniture in Sri Lanka. Another such subsidiary is Nilkamal Crates & Bins FZE (UAE), this a wholly owned subsidiary, which manufactures and exports plastic containers, pallets, parts bins, waste bins, ice boxes, metal wire cage and hand pallet trucks. Nilkamal has two Joint Ventures Nilkamal BITO Storage Systems Pvt. Ltd with 50 % JV, an Indo German JV, this is into manufacturing and selling of metal storage systems. The second JV is Cambro Nilkamal Pvt Ltd: 50 % JV which is into manufacturing of hospitality products suited for large restaurants and hotels. The company is compared with Supreme Industires Ltd, Astral Poly Technik Ltd, Sintex Industries, Peacock Industries, Wim Plast Ltd and Globally compared with Hume Industries Bhd of Malaysia, Teems Inc of South Korea, Duc Thanh Wood Processing JSC of Vietnam, LenCheong Holding Berhad of Malaysia, Crown Holding of USA, AEP Ind from USA, AptarGroup of USA, Avery Dennison Corp of USA, Ball Corporation of USA, Berry Plastics Group Inc of USA, The Pack Corp of Tokyo, Nampak Ltd of South Africa, Mpact Ltd of South Africa, Polyplex Pcl of Thailand, Billerudkorsnas Ab of Sweden, British Polythene Ind of UK, DS Smith Plc of UK, Huhtamaki Oyj of Finland, Resilux NV from Netherlands.

Investment Rationale:
Nilkamal Ltd is one amongst the world's largest manufacturer of moulded furniture and India's leading manufacturer of Material Handling Systems. Company is also a pioneer in the home retailing segment. Company is spread across the country with 16 large format retail stores with an average of 25,000sq.ft. Per store and plans to open 30 more stores in till 2017. Company is well positioned as a Home Maker store and is a perfect one-stop solution store for home planning, with finest quality furniture, soft furnishing, home accessories and a plethora of a whole lot of Services to enhance customers indoor and outdoor spaces. The design of the products of this company is contemporary yet practical, mirroring Indian taste & finesse. The comprehensive product mix right from bins, crates, pallets to Material Handling Equipment ranging from Pallet Trucks to Stackers, Forklifts, shelving and racking plus which are the equipment’s required for the rapid growing logistics industry. Product quality of Nilkamal is widely accepted, nationally & internationally and has an office in Ajman, UAE to cater to the Middle Eastern Markets. It also exports to most major markets in Europe and Americas which are known for being sticklers for quality. It has consistently won prestigious export awards and is now an Export House. The Company has advanced machinery in Injection Moulding, Rotational Moulding, Vaccum Forming, Polyurethane Injection (of insulation) and capabilities for SMC and Blow Moulding. Occupying a massive total constructed area of 11, 33,738 sq ft. All of Nilkamal’s manufacturing plants are ISO 9001/2008 Certified and practices 6 Sigma manufacturing process and the extensive manufacturing infrastructure is ably supported by their wide and strong sales network, operating through 50 Regional Offices and 77 Warehouses spread across the India. All the plants, warehouses and offices are connected to the Head Office in real time by ERP, SAP-R3. 
Nilkamal in joint venture with Bhoomi Realty has successfully completed it project in Borivali named AURABIPLEX which also homes the famous Kalyan Jewellers. This was a 21 storey Premium project build with an unique and innovative techinques. As far as Moulded Furniture is concerned, Nilkamal is a recognized name in the industry with a market share of 39 % amongst organized players. The demand for moulded plastic furniture is expected to improve owing to its cost effective nature vis-à-vis traditional wooden furniture. Plastic products have application in various industries as well as in households. As per a report by India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) on the India plastic industry, the per capita consumption of plastic in India is very low. According to industry reports, the plastic processing industry is highly fragmented with approximately 35,000-40,000 plastic processing units in India, most of which can be classified as small-scale operations. The Annual household income in India is expected to increase from $2632 in 2005 to an estimate of $3823 in 2015 and $6790 for 2020. Citing these increases in household incomes, the usage of plastic across various industries and households would increase also the per capita consumption of plastic is expected to double in the next five years. As per a FICCI 2014 report, the plastic industry is one of the fastest growing industries in India. It has protracted at around 8 % CAGR to reach 8.5 mtpa in FY2014 from 6 mtpa in FY2008. Currently, the Indian plastics industry employs about 40 Lakh people and India has over 2,000 exporters. India operates more than 30,000 processing units, of which 85 % to 90 % are small and medium enterprises (SMEs). India is one of the most promising exporters of plastics among developing countries. The Indian plastics industry produces and exports a wide range of raw materials, plastic moulded extruded goods, polyester films, laminates, moulded-soft luggage items, writing instruments, plastic woven sacks and bags, PVC leather cloth and sheeting, packaging, consumer goods, sanitary fittings, electrical accessories, laboratory-medical surgical ware and travel ware, among other products. Due to change in government at the centre, which has started focusing on development of Infrastructure including power sector, it is expected that Plastic companies will be benefited substantially in near future. Nilkamal has already done a capex of Rs. 460 Cr & has decided to go slow on @Home brand business and may even look at divesting its stake, it will focus on its core business. Nilkamal’s other business segments are also on the verge of a turnaround. Management has expressed confidence that all negatives like aggressive capex, moderation in volume and the pressure on margins is factored in its valuation at present and that likely improvement in volumes and margins and free cash flow generation can lead to a re-rating of the stock

Outlook and Valuation: 
NILKAMAL was incorporated in 1985, and is a pioneer in the plastic industry and is credited as the leader amongst the leading manufacturers of moulded plastic products in India. The company has three divisions, viz Plastics division which contribute around 82 % of the revenue, Lifestyle Furniture & Furnishings and Accessories, Retail contributes around 12 % of the revenue and Mattress & others contributes 6 % to the Nilkamal’s revenue. The products of these divisions are sold through the company’s own retail chain “@home”. The company has recently forayed into the mattress business. The company’s manufacturing plants are located at Barjora and Hooghly in West Bengal, Hosur in Tamil Nadu, Jammu, Kharadapada and Vasona in Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Noida in UP, Sinnor in Maharashtra and in Pudducherry. Nilkamal is a market leader in the Material Handling segment too, backed by its ability to directly reach a very diverse set of industrial customers through 400+ self-employed sales people & operating from 50+ regional sales offices which is located across India. The Moulded Furniture segment of the company enjoys a 39 % market share in its category. Nilkamal has 26 small format stores along with a strong network of 40+ depots and 1000+ channel partners on a pan India basis, this not only increases the division’s ability to serve remotest rural markets but also further augment Nilkamal’s leader ship position in the near future. Its retail store chain “@home”, operates 18 stores across 13 cities covering a retail space of over 3.15 lakh sq. ft. Nilkamal is well poised to see robust growth across its key segments plastic furniture, mattresses and material handling business on the back of strong economic growth and expected revival in industrial activity from the “Make in India” campaign. Nilkamal enjoys leadership position with a market share of around 32 % and a lead of over two times its closest competitor. While economic growth leading to higher investments by corporates will lead to higher demand & Nilkamal is well geared by adding a variety of products in the seating solutions segments like office chairs, designer chairs etc. for commercial establishment like food courts, malls etc. to address the raising need of the personal consumption for plastics furniture the company has set up one stop furniture showroom “Nilkamal Home Ideas” for all Nilkamal furniture products in the categories of living, bedrooms, sofas, dining, designer chairs etc. In FY14 the company added 7 such new stores ranging from 4,000 to 8,000 sq.ft, taking the total of stores to 26. Company had a huge success in launch of mattress in South, East and West. Nilkamal is currently preparing itself to stabilize with a positioning of an innovator and facilitator for the consumer in selection of right mattress. Higher purchasing power backed by the higher income levels and increased urbanization rising construction activity in housing segment will continue to boost the growth in mattress industry. Such scenario leads to increase in spring mattress segment where Nilkamal has invested in machinery and marketing strategy for growth. Mattress market is throwing up opportunities for premium products which are technically superior. Nilkamal supplies crates, Pallets, metal storage racks and material handling equipment to various industries. The “Make in India” campaign will start the ball rolling for pick up in Industrial activity which eventually will lead to high demand for Nilkamal products. Nilkamal’s Plastic products are made from polymers such as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) which are processed in numerous ways to achieve the desired shape and design of the product and so the key raw material used in manufacturing of Nilkamals products are polymers which are derived from crude oil and the Crude oil prices have corrected from a high of US$115 per bbl in August 2014 to US$ 55/bbl currently which makes Raw material cost for Nilkaml cheaper. Furthermore demand for polymers in China has weakened substantially on the back to economic slowdown. This will translate into marked reduction in raw material prices for Nilkamal resulting in a strong CAGR in nearer future. Nilkamal is one of the strong brands in the plastic segment that can be further classified into material handling commanding market share of around 36 % and moulded furniture category commanding value market share of 40 %. The company has 1200 distributors and over 5000 touch points across India. Further, the consolidated revenues recorded 12.5 % CAGR in FY10-14 while the EBITDA margin remained under pressure due to losses from its retail segment at the operating level till FY13. PAT remained flattish in FY10-14 due to a decline in margin and rising interest cost. Nilkamal has nine manufacturing units for manufacture of plastic moulded furniture and material handling solutions. Material handling and moulded furniture contribute 57 % and 43 % to segment revenues, respectively. The financial performance in the last five years was dragged down by lower volume of the plastic division coupled with losses from the retail segment. This finally resulted in higher working capital requirement and lower returns ratios which were 9 % of RoE & RoCE of 12 %. However, the management guided at an improvement in EBITDA margin, going forward, due to benign raw material prices such as crude derivatives & volume growth in plastic division. Manufacturing products contribute 65 % to top line. The EBIT margin of the segment declined from 12.6 % in FY10 to 8 % in FY14 on the back of a decline in volume growth in the material handling segment. The management is optimistic on a revival in demand for material handling products, going forward, supported by various government initiatives like “Swachh Bharat Abhiyan”. The retail segment especially the large format retail shop @home of the company operates on a completely asset light model wherein the company does not own any retail shops where the average size of the stores is 16000 sq ft. These retail stores are mainly located in Tier-1 cities and the company is aiming to add two to three new stores every year. Apart from this, “Nilkamal Home Ideas” is another format of retail shops with a focus on catering to Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities mainly. The average size of the stores is 8000 sq ft. The revenue of this segment recorded a CAGR of 14 % in FY10-14. However, the segment remained loss making till FY13 and turned into profit in FY14. Nilkamal focused on maintaining the topline growth which is over 10 % for FY16-17E with an EBIT margin of 6 % from this segment. The company has no major capex plans apart from maintenance capex of around Rs. 30 crore for FY16-17E to augment production capacity. It will largely focus on reducing the debt burden from cash generated through operations. This will also help in improving return ratios, going forward under the new business segment i.e. mattress which recorded revenue of Rs. 35 crore in FY14, the company is aiming to achieve Rs. 100 crore turnover by the end of FY18-19. Nilkamal is currently trading at 16x FY14 EPS. NILKAMAL can post EPS of Rs. 24.46 for FY15E & of Rs. 27.02 for FY16 E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.  

KEY FINANCIALSFY13FY14FY15EFY16E
SALES ( Crs)1,610.651,654.761,800.571,951.82
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)31.2040.0336.5040.31
EPS ()20.9026.8324.4627.02
PE (x)18.8314.6716.0914.57
P/BV (x)1.371.271.181.09
EV/EBITDA (x)7.005.646.065.70
ROE (%)7.278.657.317.47
ROCE (%)22.3826.9825.4625.93

 As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here


*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold NILKAMAL Ltd in my any of the portfolios.

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Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.
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Monday, April 20, 2015

GOD & INVESTOR STORY !!! (FPFS – Day 5)

Hii Friends , 
This is my Fifth and the last day for Five Pics Five Stories challange and my all posts relating to this challenge is here (FPFS- day 4)

I am into a proffession whereby we deal with money, mostly other people's money, so it takes great responsibility to manage that, off course when you win you are praised but when you loose you are critisied. Peopl always asks us what will the markets be, what will so and so stocks prices will be, and I say I dont know, I only know that this company is doing its best and is well managed and I see its future cash flows being intact and so I feel that this business should grow. But do I know what would be its prices be, NO I Dont know, M not GOD we are humans as you are and so we also cant predict future... 

Remember no one can buy at the bottom prices & Sell at top, So we try to find out stocks which are available at discounts and looking at margin of saftey, we are humans too and so can do mistakes and thats why we have Strict Stop Loss (why stoploss of 8% - read Here) on our stock picks. Talking on Prices reminds me a short story told by my Uncle about an Investor who met God - 


Commuter reading Daily in Firstclass compartment in
mumbai local in rush hours 
A man dealing with stocks met God - God asked him to make one wish - he said "GOD please give me the copy of news paper dated excatly after 2 years from now"!. God was suprised but still granted his wish and Gave him the NEWSPAPER which was dated 2 years from now...... 
The first thing that man did was opened up the business page & Saw the stocks prices and invested in those stocks immediately which could fetch him multi-millions after 2 years.... After few days of buying spree and as tended by the Human psychology, he felt let me see what would be the news around the world after two years from now and turning on the pages he landed on Obituary section - On Which his Name was the First !!  - So, what this tells us, that do live in present and dont worry what will be there in future, Just live your life at the fullest .. 

This is my last day for the challenge series and I hope you all must have enjoyed reading some of the offbeat post, it was bit difficult for me to going into the creative zone after a long long time, I dont know how it has turnout.. but will say I enjoyed this very much.. after a very long time I was thinking beyond markets ..hehehe :)
Anyways thanks friends for your amazing supports !!

Please do keep on ur support for me & pl do visit again and share the posts :)

 Regards
Bhavikk shah
mumbai  


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I have been tagged by my dear friend Shweta, to take part in Five Photos Five Stories Challenge (FPFS) which is - Post a picture for 5 consecutive days and attach a post to it, fiction,poem or short wrtie-up. It can be anything to suit your taste. Thanks Shweta for tagging me :) I am tagging my blogger friend Priyanka Artiste, She is a brilliant, passionate & talented photographer.. All the best Priyanka... I hope u all enjoyed the 5 day series :)

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Koshish karne walon ki kabhi haar nahi hoti (FPFS – Day 4)

Hii Friends , 
This is my Third day for Five Pics Five Stories challange and my first post relating to this challenge is here (FPFS- day 3)
One more from the treasure of Harivansh Rai Bachhan.... An Inspring poem fits all.



लहरों से डर कर नौका पार नहीं होती,
कोशिश करने वालों की कभी हार नहीं होती।

नन्हीं चींटी जब दाना लेकर चलती है,
चढ़ती दीवारों पर, सौ बार फिसलती है।
मन का विश्वास रगों में साहस भरता है,
चढ़कर गिरना, गिरकर चढ़ना न अखरता है।
आख़िर उसकी मेहनत बेकार नहीं होती,
कोशिश करने वालों की कभी हार नहीं होती।

डुबकियां सिंधु में गोताखोर लगाता है,
जा जा कर खाली हाथ लौटकर आता है।
मिलते नहीं सहज ही मोती गहरे पानी में,
बढ़ता दुगना उत्साह इसी हैरानी में।
मुट्ठी उसकी खाली हर बार नहीं होती,
कोशिश करने वालों की कभी हार नहीं होती।

असफलता एक चुनौती है, इसे स्वीकार करो,
क्या कमी रह गई, देखो और सुधार करो।
जब तक न सफल हो, नींद चैन को त्यागो तुम,
संघर्ष का मैदान छोड़ कर मत भागो तुम।
कुछ किये बिना ही जय जय कार नहीं होती,
कोशिश करने वालों की कभी हार नहीं होती।

-- । हरिवंशराय बच्चन 


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I have been tagged by my dear friend Shweta, to take part in Five Photos Five Stories Challenge (FPFS) which is - Post a picture for 5 consecutive days and attach a post to it, fiction,poem or short wrtie-up. It can be anything to suit your taste. Thanks Shweta for tagging me :) I am tagging my blogger friend Sindhu Devi , She is a brilliant & a passionate Fashion Designer by proffession, but a talented photographer.. All the best Sindhu... I will tag a new person on Day Four :) 

Saturday, April 18, 2015

BAZAAR !!! (FPFS – Day 3)

Hii Friends , 
This is my Third day for Five Pics Five Stories challange and my first post relating to this challenge is here (FPFS- day 2)
This is the beautiful poem by Harivansh Rai Bachhan which I feel fits perfectly on Markets.

Mumbai's famous Chor Bazaar 

यहाँ सब कुछ बिकता है , दोस्तों रहना जरा संभाल के !!!

बेचने वाले हवा भी बेच देते है , गुब्बारों में डाल के !!!


सच बिकता है , झूट बिकता है, बिकती है हर कहानी !!!


तीन लोक में फेला है , फिर भी बिकता है बोतल में पानी !!!



कभी फूलों की तरह मत जीना,



जिस दिन खिलोगे... टूट कर बिखर्र जाओगे ।

जीना है तो पत्थर की तरह जियो;

जिस दिन तराशे गए... "खुदा" बन जाओगे ।।

-- ।। हरिवंशराय बच्चन ।।


******************************************************************************************************************************************
I have been tagged by my dear friend Shweta, to take part in Five Photos Five Stories Challenge (FPFS) which is - Post a picture for 5 consecutive days and attach a post to it, fiction,poem or short wrtie-up. It can be anything to suit your taste. Thanks Shweta for tagging me :) I am tagging my blogger friend Deepa Prabhu, She started photography as a hobby which has now become her passion. A very brilliant photographer will surely amase us with her talent. I will tag a new person on Day Four :) 

Friday, April 17, 2015

THE FISHERMAN & INVESTMENT BANKER (FPFS – Day 2) !!!

Hii Friends , 
This is my second day for Five Pics Five Stories challange and my first post relating to this challenge is here (FPFS- day 1)
Few weeks ago, I came across this fantastic story about a fisher man and a Investment Banker. 



This is the story that states about the "Be More with Less" principle of life. We are so inclined with the materialistic world today, that we forget the importance of what we have. We work harder and harder to make more & more, so that we can buy more, to have more, like being in a rat race just to have more. I too was no exception to that, atleast before knowing this story. This story makes you realise how important is to live the real life                                   ...... (my Investment banker friends, do read this ) .......

So, the story is - An American Investment Banker was at the pier of small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked in. Inside the small boat there were several large yellow fin tuna fishes. Impressed by the catch of the fisherman, the American Investment banker complimented the Mexican fisherman on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.

The Mexican replied," Only a little while". The American then asked why didn't he stay out longer in the sea and catch more fish? The Mexican said he had enough to support his family's immediate needs. The American then asked, " but what do you do with the rest of your time?"

The Mexican fisherman replied, " I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take a nap in afternoon, stroll into the village each evening where I sip Wine, and play guitar with my amigos. I have a full and busy Life." 

On hearing this the American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat. With the proceeds from the bigger boats, you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to middlemen you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then to LA and eventually to New York, where you will run your expanding enterprise"

The Mexican fisherman asked, " But, how long will this all take?"

To which the American replied,"15 - 20 years".

"But what then?" Asked the mexican. 

The American laughed and said,"That's the best part. When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and became very rich, you would make millions !!" 

Fisherman said," Millions - then What?"

The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take an afternoon nap, stroll to the village in the evening where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos." 

This story is smiply superb, it brings clarity to what the money game is all about & definitely not about. This story brillantly breaks the illusions of ours for pursuing wealth and financial freedom. We have so forgotten to all the goodness we're surrounded by today just in race to chase the money.

The truth is it doesn't take lot of money to have a truly wealthy life, but it does take freedom. Believe it or not values do determine your path in life, regardless of your financial goals. Having clarity around issues like these develops you as an better financially sound person - at both times, while building wealth and after wealth is achieved.


I hope you like this story which I read somewhere, but the story do teaches US a lots ENJOY!!! 

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I have been tagged by my dear friend, Shweta to take part in Five photos Five stories Challenge (FPFS) which is- Post a picture for 5 consecutive days and attach a post to it , fiction, poem or short write-up. It can be anything to suit your taste. Thank you Shweta for tagging me :)
This is different for me as I have never tried such as U all know I am finance guy but as we say "There's always the First Time" so here it is...I am tagging my dear friend Renu Sethi on my Day Two and as a part of the challenge, I will tag a new person on Day Three.
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