Dear Readers, BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG is totally free website. Contents here should be viewed for Knowledge purpose only. Author does not charge for any kinds of the services. Kindly don't entertain to any of the paid services in a name of BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG !!

Thursday, September 3, 2015

DLINK INDIA LTD : DIGITIZING INDIA IS CONNECTING INDIA !!!

Scrip Code: 533146 DLINKINDIA
CMP:  Rs. 162.15; Market Cap: Rs. 575.71 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 251.80 / Rs. 95.60. Total Shares: 3,55,04,850 shares; Promoters : 1,81,14,663 shares –51.02 %; Total Public holding : 1,73,90,187 shares – 39.62 %; Book Value: Rs. 37.87; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 5.73; Dividend: 35.00 %; P/E: 28.27 times; Ind. P/E: 21.65; EV/EBITDA: 17.53. Total Debt: Rs. 3.51 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 576.15 Cr.

D-LINK INDIA LTD: D-Link India Ltd was founded in the year 2008 and is based in Mumbai. D-Link (India) Limited was formerly known as Smartlink Network Systems Limited. Company is a subsidiary of D-Link Holding Mauritius Inc. D-Link (India) Limited engages in the marketing and distribution of networking products in India and SAARC countries. It primarily offers digital home, easy portal, home servers, security box, Internet protocol (IP) device integration and wireless routers, as well as carrier switches, broadband digital subscriber lines (DSL) and DSL access multiplexers, integrated access devices, cable modems, voice over IP, passive optical network, rural connective platform outdoor wireless bridges, digital home appliances, network storage, and IP surveillance and multimedia devices for customers and service providers. The company also provides metro network, access network, premises network and home entertainment focusing on the provision of backend infrastructure services to customers at various levels, such as service distribution, aggregation, and access and premise networks. The company sells its networking products to distributors, original equipment manufacturers and system integrators, as well as for the enterprise and small and medium business segments in the government, hospitability and education sectors. It also exports its products. D-LINK INDIA LTD can be locally compared Salora International Limited, Computech Intl. Ltd, Redington India Ltd, Vintron Informatics Ltd, Zenith Computers Ltd, Encore Software Ltd and globally with Emulex Corp of USA, Emcore Corp of USA, Digi International Inc of USA, Cisco Systems Inc of USA, Intel Corporation of USA, Qualcomm Inc of US, United Technologies Corp of USA, Netgear Inc of USA, Novatel Wireless Inc of USA, Netas Telekomunikasyon A.S. of Turkey, Transmode AB of Sweden, Pace Plc of London, Alpha Networks Inc of Taiwan, Hitachi Kokusai Electric Inc of South Korea, Humax Co, Ltd of South Korea, Wave Electronics Co, Ltd of South Korea, Wistron NeWeb Corporation of Taiwan, Ceragon Networks Ltd of Isreal, Inter Far East Engineering Public Company Limited of Thailand, Marco Holdings Berhad of Malaysia, Startia Inc of Japan, Gremz, Inc of Japan, Aiko Corporation of Japan

Investment Rationale:
D-Link (India) Limited was incorporated in 2008. D-Link (India) Limited is a subsidiary of D-Link Holding Mauritius Inc. D-Link India is in business of marketing and distribution of networking, broadband, digital, voice, and data communications products of its parent D-Link Corporation, Taiwan in India. D-Link Corporation, Taiwan is globally renowned for its networking products and solutions and has a presence in 67 countries with a wide range of products. D-Link India distributes switches, routers, modems, voice over Internet protocol products, surveillance equipment, print servers, Ethernet cards, and broadband equipment. India is expected to witness a data boom similar to the voice boom witnessed in 2008. The total number of internet connections is expected to reach 463 million by FY18E (as per FICCI KPMG). The national optic fibre network as proposed by the new government will facilitate the New Telecom Policy (NTP 2012) targeting 600 million broadband users by 2020. Currently, India has about 55 million fixed and mobile broadband users. The Indian networking industry is undergoing a rapid transformation with the advent of new technologies, higher bandwidth and high speed wireless connectivity. The growth in this sector is likely to be accelerated as the economy steadily moves to a higher gear in 2014-15 driven by a gradual revival in industrial production, stable agri-sector activity, steady services growth and easing inflation. With the economy poised to grow at a steady pace, Enterprises are investing towards setting up a strong networking infrastructure that can deliver reliable and efficient end-to-end solutions which eventually transforms their productivity from business operations. The roll out of 4G services and the significant government initiatives in aggressively promoting broadband usage in the country are driving the demand of networking products like routers, modems, switches and access points to storage and surveillance products across all verticals. The number of computing devices, PCs, tablets, smart phones has increased rapidly in India and networks, especially wifi networks, need to be deployed to share information and resources across users and devices. Indian users are upgrading their networks to take advantage of complex applications, advanced communication capabilities and rich multimedia content. Indian users need the convenience and flexibility of operating their various devices in an increasingly mobile or wireless manner. Similarly, market demand for television connectivity products has increased as users seek to connect their televisions to internet and for entertainment content. These developments augurs well for D-Link India, and with the networking industry in an expansion mode, the company looks forward to sound long term growth prospects. D-link supplies complete range of switching solutions including switches, L3/L2 managed web-smart and un-managed switches. D-Link is the market leader in port shipment of switches with market share of 30 %. The demand for switches are driven by bandwidth intensive applications like streaming video, VoIP and high-end multimedia and the rising demand for gigabit switches are driven from large enterprises and service providers and D-Link carters to all. D-Link’s Product portfolio includes business class access points, unified switching solutions and long distance wireless systems. D-Link is the market leader by volumes in WLAN category with 40 % market size. Expansion of the smart phone market has helped D-Link to profitably position its products like mydlink, mobile companion and 3G in a leading space. D-Link also offers a wide range of IP-based surveillance cameras with wired and wireless options, including stand-alone network cameras, pan tilt zoom cameras, dome cameras, box cameras and outdoor cameras. This business gets orders from all relevant sectors like consumer, SMB/SME and enterprise. D-Link also handles cabling requirements of large enterprises and SMEs/SMBs across sectors. In healthcare, the focus is on high data transmission in ICU and operation theatres, while it provides complete platform of infrastructure systems and fibre connectivity for data centres. For enterprises, it offers exhaustive solution for physically distributed network and plan for flexible cabling. D-Link has recently acquired TeamF1 Networks, a provider of embedded software engineering with expertise in networking and security, in a share swap deal of 5.5m shares were issued at a price of Rs. 30 each, resulting in goodwill on acquisition of Rs. 15.35 Crs. TeamF1 provides networking and security solutions for key infrastructure components of communication and industrial equipment’s (both wired and wireless). Its products have been planted in embedded systems by scores of OEM customers ranging from big corporates to start-up companies. This acquisition will not only foment D-Link's technological and R&D capabilities but also spur in-house customization and development of new localized products. To strengthen its reach in industrial networking segment, D-Link has recently tied up with MOXA, a well-recognized player in industrial networking, computation and automation and MOXA has presence in over 70 countries. This alliance is aimed towards providing comprehensive industrial networking solution with switching, IP surveillance & wireless products as part of its offering. This association will help D-Link to offer reliable network solution for industrial grade networking technology catering to wide industrial segments like power, factory automation, surveillance projects, oil & gas, marine and telecom carriers. With the rollout of 4G and its enabled products will help D-Link to leverage its position in SOHO/SMB segment. Its latest product line from Connected Home Solution comprises of Wi Fi smart plug, motion sensor, audio extender and apps. It has also unveiled ‘D-LINK Connect Mobile App’ for its channel partners and retailers across the country. This app provides instant update on new product introductions, details on select SKUs with specification videos, news, events etc. There is a good demand for D-Link's portable routers have got a thrust from widespread adoption of 4G LTE technology in the consumer segment. Some other new products introduced last fiscal include a baby camera and 11AC product line up with cloud services which helps in stream media, share files and control network from any PC or mobile device remotely. Also D-Link Corporation recently signed a non-binding MOU with the Telegana government to set up its global R&D centre, and expands its Hyderabad office and build a network training centre in Indian state of Telegana with an investment of over Rs. 350 Crs. D-Link (India) continues to rely heavily on wares imported from D-Link Corporation and its subsidiaries, associates. To maintain its technological edge D-Link Corporation continues to rack up R&D spending which grew 18 % in the year ending 2014 and constituted 3.7 % of net operating revenues. As a result, it has been awarded copyrights and patents on several technological platforms including application specific integrated circuit (asic) computer chips, hardware technology designs, software applications and other intellectual properties.

Outlook and Valuation:

D-Link (India) Limited is a part of D-Link Corporation and is one of the largest networking company in India. The Company is engaged in Marketing and Distribution of Networking products in India as well as SAARC Countries. D-Link Holding Mauritius Inc., which is 100 % subsidiary of D-Link Corporation, is holding 60.37 % in D-Link (India) Ltd. D-Link (India) Limited is a key market player with a nationwide reach, robust product portfolio and superior services in India. The Company is firmly committed towards delivering high quality, efficiency and reliability to Networking products, solutions and services. Its product portfolio consists of end to end networking products, which includes 3G/4G, broadband, IP surveillance, network security, network storage, switching, routing and wireless LAN. D-Link is a leading player in networking products for the enterprise segment and is well placed to grab emerging opportunities in education, BFSI, manufacturing and customer premise equipment industry. D-Link's entire range of high end copper and fiber products finds applications in high end applications like data centres and server farms. With more and more people availing internet connections, the increase in popularity and usage of mobile devices like laptops, smart-phones and gaming consoles has also resulted in an increased demand for networking products in the consumer space in India. India adds more than 1.5 Cr wireless subscribers every month and is the second-largest market after China for wireless services. The numbers of wireless subscribers has increased from 26 crore at the end of FY08 to 90 crore at the end of FY14 which reflects a CAGR of 23 % while wired broadband penetration has increased from 0.4 crore at the end of FY08 to 1.5 crore at the end of FY14 at a CAGR of 25 %. In addition to these there are currently 4.6 crore users accessing broadband internet through mobile devices i.e. smart-phones and dongles. Robust growth in wireless as well as broadband subscribers is pushing the demand for PCs, tablets, smart phones and consequently for networking, especially, Wi-Fi networks. The emergence of an affluent middle class is triggering the demand for mobile and internet segments. A young and growing population is aiding this trend with their demand for new age technology, especially the demand for smart phones. This trend is expected to continue and will be further fuelled with an increase in 3G/4G subscribers and broadband users, thus, creating further demand for networking products from individual users. Enterprises have been investing towards setting up a strong networking infrastructure that can deliver reliable and efficient end-to-end solutions to aid in their business operations. The roll out of 3G services and the significant government initiatives in aggressively promoting broadband usage in the country are driving the demand of networking products like routers, switches and access points to storage and surveillance products across all verticals. The fast growth in networking infrastructure is evident across a string of verticals such as telecom, retail, aviation, hospitality, government, manufacturing and education which are increasingly deploying sophisticated networking infrastructure. D-Link being a market leader in providing networking and IT products and solutions naturally benefits from any increased spending in networking infrastructure. In India, D-Link has sustained its growth momentum in various categories. In the switches segment, D-Link’s market share continues to grow and has reached the leadership position at nearly 37 % in FY14 against the backdrop of a virtually flat market. In the routers segment, D-Link ranked second with a 36.6 % market share in FY15. In network switches it holds market share of 30 % and in the commercial routers, D-Link retained its Numero Uno position with 40 % of the market and commands pricing power, while in the emerging domain of IP surveillance, D-Link was at 4th place in FY15. GOI's landmark initiatives of digitalizing India and erecting dozens of smart cities would further galvanize the IT networking industry. Lifted by firm backing of its parent D-Link Corporation, D-Link (India) would continue to roll out highly sophisticated products in India. GOI's Digital India project envisages creation of high speed internet at gram panchayat level, on demand availability of public services and digital empowerment of citizens. It plans to set up necessary infrastructure for digital identity, financial inclusion and availability of common service centers. GOI has also laid out policy framework for setting up 100 smart cities in next five years. Despite some cooling, its revenues are expected to grow by 24 % to 25 % over the next two years. D-Link has wonderful top line growth; its revenues have grown by 5 times in last five years with average yearly addition of Rs. 134 Crs in last three years. D-Link’s Foray in high end enterprise solutions with recent tie ups with MOXA and GajShield could push its margins higher. D-Link's asset light model manifests in its overwhelming asset turnover ratios, its fixed asset and total asset turnover ratios stood at 32 % and 5.3 % last fiscal respectively. Despite awful net margins, its ability to churn out sales on a low base helps push its return on capital ratios in top quartile and its ROE stood at 18.2 % last fiscal. On Financial side, D-Link in Q4 FY15, reported a jump in its Net profit jumps to Rs. 5.30 Cr an increase of 65.91 % against Rs. 3.2 Cr in the corresponding quarter of previous year. The company’s net sales registered 29.91 % increase in Q4 FY15 and stood at Rs. 172.89 Cr from Rs. 133.08 Cr over the corresponding quarter of previous year. During the quarter, it reported its operating profit at Rs. 8.87 Cr as against Rs. 5.99 Cr in the corresponding period of the previous year. For the end of FY15, the company registered a growth of 28 % in Net sales to Rs. 625.32 Cr from Rs. 487.58 Cr for the end of FY14. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 24 % and 21 % over 2014 to 2017E respectively. At the current market price of Rs. 162.15, the stock is trading at 22.24 x FY16E and about 17.07 x FY17E. Company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 7.29 for FY16E and of Rs. 9.49 for FY17E. Despite sobering growth, D-Link's earning is projected to grow by some 26 % (annual average) over the next two years. The company will proficienctly remain virtually debt free – funded the TeamF1’s purchase consideration of Rs 16.50 crs through equity. Volatility in forex rates though pose marginal risks for it imports finished goods worth over 50 % of sales. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.

KEY FINANCIALSFY14FY15FY16EFY17E
SALES ( Crs)487.58625.32781.45968.78
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)13.5721.3225.8833.70
EPS ()4.256.007.299.49
PE (x)6.4027.4027.0020.70
P/BV (x)0.904.304.403.70
EV/EBITDA (x)3.8016.9016.9013.10
ROE (%)14.4018.2017.8019.50
ROCE (%)14.8018.0017.6019.50

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold DLINK Ltd in my investment portfolios.

*Reader Friends, So grab a fresh cup of hot coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes of yours to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

Sunday, August 23, 2015

VRL LOGISTICS LIMITED: BEST PLACED IN SECTOR !!!

Scrip Code: 539118 VRLLOG
CMP:  Rs. 370.30; Market Cap: Rs. 3,378.74 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 406.70 / Rs. 261.05
Total Shares: 9,12,43,495 shares; Promoters : 6,34,80,000 shares – 69.57 %; Total Public holding : 2,77,63,495 shares – 30.43 %; Book Value: Rs. 42.92; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 9.67; Dividend: 40.00 %; P/E: 39.26 times; Ind. P/E: 35.64; EV/EBITDA: 13.81x
Total Debt: Rs. 443.35 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 3,805.40 Cr.

VRL Logistics Limited: The Company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Hubballi, India. It was formerly known as Vijayanand Roadlines Ltd. and changed its name to VRL Logistics Limited in August 2006. VRL Logistics Limited provides goods and passenger transportation services in India. It offers various goods transportation services, including general parcel and VRL priority, courier, less than truck load, and full truckload services through its transportation network in 28 states and 4 Union Territories. The company came out with an IPO on April 15 2015 offering 2,28,23,333 equity shares of Rs. 10 each for Rs. 205 per share raising Rs. 467.88 Cr. The issue consisted of fresh issue of 57,07,333 of equity shares and offer for sale of 1,71,16,000 equity shares by the seller shareholders. It got listed on April 30, 2015 at Rs. 288 making a high of Rs. 309.00 on listing day. The object of offer for sale was to purchase of goods transportation Vehicles and repayment & prepayment of certain borrowings. The company’s goods transportation service business serves a range of industries, including fast moving consumer goods sector, as well as other industries comprising food, textile, apparel, furniture, appliances, pharmaceutical products, rubber, plastics, metal and metal products, wood, footwear, and machinery. It has a fleet approximately 3,500 owned vehicles. The company also provides bus services in the states of Karnataka, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Goa through its owned fleet of approximately 455 buses (including 53 staff buses), including Multi Axle Volvo seater buses, Multi Axle Volvo I-shift sleeper buses, Isuzu seater buses, non-Volvo A/C sleeper, sleeper buses, and semi sleeper buses. In addition, the company engages in liquid transportation and car carrying operations. Further, it is involved in the sale of power and sale of certified emission reductions units generated from operation of wind mills; and provision of air charter services. As of March 31, 2014, company had 81 branch offices of which 74 were leased offices and seven were owned offices, 739 agencies and 416 prepaid agencies for its bus operations business. Company also provide ticketing facilities through its website www.vrlbus.in, as well as through its network of commission agents and online travel agents such as www.redbus.in, www.mybustickets.in, www.makemytrip.com and www.abhibus.com. Company also operate car carrier vehicles for transportation of cars, vehicles for liquid transportation, as well as a courier service business across the State of Karnataka. Company also have minor business interests in wind power, air charter services and hospitality. VRL’s fleet size for goods and passenger transport business grew from 2,730 in 2010 to 3,874 as of March 31, 2014. VRL LOGISTICS LTD is locally compared to Patel Integrated logistics ltd, Transport Corporation of India Ltd, Shreyas Shipping, Costal Roadways ltd, Gati Ltd, Gateway Distripacks Ltd, Allcargo Logistics Limited, Blue Dart Express, Snowman Logistics nationally and globally with Senko Co of Japan, AMERCO Inc of USA, CSX Corp of USA, Con-way Inc of USA, Kansas City Southern of USA, PAM Transportation Services of USA, SixtSE of Germany, VTG Aktiengesellschaft of Germany, Stagecoach Group Plc of United Kingdom, Northgate Plc of United Kingdom, National Express Group Plc of United Kingdom, DSV A/S of Denmark, Dazhong Transportation of China, ComfortDelGro Corporation Ltd of Singapore, CJ Korea Express Corporation of South Korea, Central Japan Railway Co of Japan, CAR Inc of China, Bangkok Metro Public Co of Thailand, Asciano Ltd of Australia, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd of Canada, USA Truck Inc of USA, Universal Truckload services of USA.

Investment Rationale:
VRL Logistics Ltd owns and operates the largest fleet of commercial vehicles in the private sector in India. VRL has now grown into a logistics and transport company which is currently the largest fleet owner in India with a fleet of 4,077 Vehicles including 373 Passenger Transport Vehicles & 3,704 Goods Transport Vehicles as of 10 May 2015. VRL also has its mentions in the Limca Book of Records as a single largest fleet owner of commercial vehicles in India in the private sector. VRL provides general parcel and priority parcel delivery (less than truckload services, LTL), courier and full-truckload (FTL) services through its widespread transportation network in 28 States and 4 Union Territories across India. Its operational infrastructure for the goods transportation business as of June 30, 2015 comprised 624 branches comprising 604 leased branches and 20 owned branches and 346 agencies across India, and of such 624 branches, 48 (41 leased branches and seven owned branches) served as strategic trans-shipment hubs for its operations. VRL employs nearly 4,506 drivers for its fleet of 4,024 vehicles, who are provided with pension benefits, accident insurance coverage, etc. The company also provides attractive incentives for efficient driving, on-time performance, etc, which increases overall remuneration and hence provides drivers with job satisfaction. The logistics sector presents an incredible arena of opportunity because nearly 90 % of the market is still controlled by the unorganized sector. The Indian logistics industry is expected to grow at 15 % to 20 % per annum, reaching revenues of $38,500 Cr by 2016. The demand for focused supply-chain services has been fuelled by industries with a high propensity to outsource from industries like automobiles, consumer packaged goods, hi-tech, telecom and retail amongst others. In India, Logistics sector has generated employment for near about 4.5 Cr people. India currently spends 12 % to 13 % of its GDP on logistics as compared to 8 % to 9 % in developed economies. For the sectors moving physical products this percentage is much higher because 55 % of India’s GDP is generated by the service sector. The industry as a whole is very fragmented and disorganized. India's logistics sector continues to be attractive for global investors and Investment in logistics in India is projected to grow annually at 10 %. VRL Logistics is differentiated itself in service offerings and building a  large integrated hub-and-spoke transportation network and extensive operational infrastructure, including advanced technology systems which enabled VRL to establish a leadership position in the surface logistics industry with a strong brand name across India. 
VRL’s hub-and-spoke operating model enables it to transport various parcel sizes and provide its customers with access to multiple destinations for booking and delivery of goods, and provide “last mile” connectivity to even remote locations in India. This involves effective consolidation of goods from multiple locations at its trans-shipment hubs, which are continuously operated on a 24X7 basis throughout the year, and redistribution thereof to their respective destinations, resulting in operating and cost efficiencies, optimal capacity utilization of co’s transportation vehicles, rationalization of routes, as well as flexibility in operation, allocation and optimal utilization of resources including manpower. Road transport is competitive even at higher prices given its advantages of flexibility, better service quality and end-to-end delivery. Freight transporters are broadly classified as small fleet operators (SFOs), medium fleet operators (MFOs) and large fleet operators (LFOs) on the basis of number of trucks they own or control. Typically, an LFO is one who owns more than 20 trucks, while SFO is one who owns less than 5 trucks. VRL is one of the largest LFO in India with a fleet of 3,649 trucks. Road freight transportation is highly fragmented, with Small Fleet Owners cornering a high market share of approximately 77 %, as per CRISIL. Low entry barriers have led to a proliferation of small truck operators in SFO segment, resulting in high fragmentation of this segment leading to competition, offering customers better bargaining power also the lack of service differentiation amongst the smaller operator’s results in very competitive pricing. Large fleet operators though enjoy distinct advantages over Small Fleet Operators. Large Fleet Operators typically enjoy scale advantages and provide a variety of value-added services as well such as warehousing, express service, third-party logistics (3PL), consulting, etc. and the key factors impacting the profitability of freight transporters include freight rates, fuel costs, fleet utilisation rates, load flexibility and regulations among others. Given that the industry is highly fragmented, typically, LFOs have a better bargaining power than SFOs due to the contractual nature of the former’s business. LFOs have the flexibility to offer services like full truckload (FTL), less than truckload (LTL) and express cargo transportation. LTL & FTL are higher-margin services. In the express cargo segment, LFOs realise positive cash flow even at 40 % utilisations due to higher realisation per tonne. With this flexibility in the kind of load services being offered, LFOs are able to restrict the impact on their margins during periods of low freight availability. On the cost front, fuel (diesel) is the single largest cost component. LFOs generally operate on a yearly contract basis and include a fuel cost pass-through clause to hedge against hike in fuel prices. However, due to weak freight availability, SFOs who operate largely in the spot market are unable to completely pass on such increases. The implementation of GST is expected only by CY2016. The logistics sector is likely to respond positively to GST by making more use of the hub and spoke systems, large scale warehousing and specialized services. A gradual opening up of key sectors like retail, aviation, defense etc. will also help to boost this sector. The entry of multinational companies (MNCs) in sourcing, manufacturing and distributing could be the other growth drivers.

Outlook and Valuation:
VRL has pioneered in providing a safe and reliable delivery network in the field of parcel service. It has spread its operations to Courier Service, Priority Cargo & Air Chartering to meet the growing demands of its burgeoning customer base. VRL Logistics (VRL) is one of the largest commercial vehicle owners in the Indian private sector, and provides goods transportation and passenger bus operations across India. Its goods transportation segment contributes around 78 % to the company’s FY15 revenues, and its higher-margin parcel delivery business contributes around 77 % to its revenues. 3PL & Warehousing solutions offered by VRL are tailor-made and cater to unique needs of its diverse customer base. With the largest goods transportation network in India, VRL parcel service is indispensable for a large number of Corporate Houses. This network spans the length and breadth of the country and is supported by strategically located transshipment hubs. In the goods transportation business, it serves a number of customers in the FMCG industry as well as in general commodities such as food, textiles, apparel, furniture, appliances, pharmaceutical products, rubber, plastics, metal and metal products, wood, glass, automotive parts and machinery. The company’s hub-and-spoke operating model helps to serve a diverse mix of end-consumers in various industry verticals, which enables it to transport various parcel sizes and provide customers with access to multiple destinations for booking and delivery of goods. Its extensive network with large number of fleets enables VRL to provide last mile connectivity to even remote areas in India. The large fleet, most of which is owned by the Company, enables it to reduce dependence on hired vehicles, retain control of the value chain and service quality, and establish a reputation for reliable and timely delivery of consignments. VRL owns an in-house vehicle body designing facility at Hubli, Karnataka, to build customised vehicles with lighter and longer bodies to carry higher payload, resulting in increased margins per vehicle. The company hires third-party vehicles only during periods of high demand and in emergency situations. Operating owned vehicles enables VRL to significantly reduce vehicle hiring and operational costs. VRL’s large fleet of owned vehicles allows it to cover a large number of routes, and maintain timely delivery of consignments. The variety of goods transportation vehicles in its fleet enables the company to serve a diverse mix of consignments while the range of passenger buses enables to serve transportation requirements of different customer segments. The company’s goods transportation fleet primarily comprises heavy commercial vehicles carrying capacity of more than 7,500 kg with the same accounting for 66 % of its goods transportation fleet as of Mar’15. VRL also enjoys the benefits of economies of scale (discounts, etc.) especially during bulk procurement of key items like vehicle chassis, diesel, tyres, spare parts, etc. The company relies largely on Ashok Leyland to supply it with vehicle chassis as per customised requirements. In the case of spare parts, VRL has entered into supply arrangements with Ashok Leyland and VE Commercial Vehicles who have set up dedicated outlets at the Hubli facility, which allows VRL to source spares parts at competitive rates and reduce procurement timelines. GST will help make India’s manufacturing competitive by cutting high logistics and warehousing costs. Currently, each of India’s 29 states taxes goods that move across their borders at different rates. As a result, freight that moves across the country is taxed multiple times. Worse, there are long delays at inter-state checkpoints, as state authorities review and examine freight and apply the relevant taxes and other levies. Truck delays average five-to-seven hours at inter-state checkpoints. This, combined with other delays, keep trucks from moving during 60 % of the entire transit time. As much as 65 % of India’s freight moves by road, hence GST is critical for India. Simply halving the delays due to roadblocks, tolls and other stoppages could cut freight times by some 20-30 % and logistics costs by an even higher 30-40 %, according to World Bank estimates. This alone can go a long way in boosting the competitiveness of India’s key manufacturing sectors by 3-4 % of net sales. GST, when implemented, will free the decisions on warehousing and distribution from tax considerations, which, henceforth, would be based purely upon operational and logistics efficiency. This will lead to changes in logistics requirements of clients, forcing logistics service providers (LSPs) to rethink their business operations, including creating new warehousing and logistics locations and expanding or closing existing warehouses at certain other locations. GST will score over the existing regime in the transportation and logistics industry, where a tendency is seen to engage with the unorganized players for tax considerations. The GST regime will see the emergence of the organized service providers since taxes will no longer be added costs for the businesses. Given the highly fragmented nature of the Indian transportation and logistics industry (the leading 10 listed firms command less than 5 % of the overall market), implementation of GST is expected to unleash a plethora of opportunities for companies in the organized sector. On financial side, posted a Net Profit (standalone unaudited) of Rs. 35.38 crore posting a strong increase of 40.93 % as compared to Rs. 25.1 crore for the first quarter Q1 FY16 ended June 30, 2015. The Net Profit increased 82.67 % as compared to Rs. 19.37 crore in Q4 FY15. The Total Income from operations increased to Rs. 447.011 crore up 9 % from Rs. 411.36 crore for the quarter. The segment revenue of the Goods transport business increased to Rs. 339.69 crore up 12.66 % in Q1 Fy16. The segment revenue from Bus operations stood at Rs. 94.69 crore in Q1 FY16. The segment revenues from sale of power increased to Rs. 7.1 crore up 10.54 % in Q1 FY16. VRL operates a 42.5MW wind farm in Karnataka, and owns two aircrafts, which provide charter services to corporate clients. The contribution from these non-core businesses remains very small a 1.3 % from wind energy business and 0.7 % from air charter business in FY15. The company came with a successful IPO and those funds would be used mainly for Purchase of goods transportation vehicles and Re-payment/pre-payment of certain borrowings. VRL’s debt totalled Rs. 443 Cr as of FY15, and is expected to decline further as a small component of IPO proceeds approx. Rs. 28 Cr will be used to repay debt. VRL’s ‘net debt to equity ratio’ is expected to fall to almost 0.4 x by FY16 aided by strong free cash flow generation. Despite the industry slowdown, VRL has generated positive FCF in four of the last five years, and we expect FCF generation to continue to improve aided by higher volumes and fleet utilisation. The company plans to spend approximately Rs. 51.8 Cr towards vehicle purchases in FY16. A strong balance sheet provides further headroom for targeting growth. At the current market price of Rs. 370.30, the stock is trading at 28.92 x FY16E. Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for FY16E could be Rs. 12.80 & for FY17E could be seen at Rs. 18.40. It is expected that the company will keep its growth story intact in the coming quarters also with rationalization of haulage charges by IR or Pickup in containerized trade both in EXIM and domestic segment. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. 

KEY FINANCIALSFY14FY15FY16EFY17E
SALES ( Crs)1,493.801,671.201,814.502,073.10
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)57.0091.20117.00167.50
EPS ()7.2010.7012.8018.40
PE (x)44.3029.8024.8017.30
P/BV (x)8.207.604.903.80
EV/EBITDA (x)13.9011.2010.408.30
ROE (%)18.6025.6019.8022.10
ROCE (%)9.1916.2216.0219.37

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold VRL LOGISTICS Ltd in my any of the portfolios.

*Reader Friends, grab a fresh hot cup of coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes to get to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON


Top post on IndiBlogger.in, the community of Indian Bloggers


Saturday, August 15, 2015

69th INDEPENDENCE DAY OF MY INDIA : VANDE MATARAM !!!

                                             !! TURN ON YOUR SPEAKERS !!

{{ Maa Tujhe Salam }} 
 Freedom In The Mind, Faith In The Words.
Pride In Our Souls. Let's Salute The Nation
On This Swatantra Diwas !!
Happy Independence Day to You ALL !!!


वन्दे मातरम् सुजलां सुफलां मलयजशीतलाम् |
सस्य श्यामलां मातरम् 
शुभ्र ज्योत्स्ना पुलकित यामिनीम्
फुल्ल कुसुमित द्रुमदलशोभिनीम्
सुहासिनीं सुमधुर भाषिणीम्
सुखदां वरदां मातरम् ||



"In the attitude of silence the soul finds the path in a clearer light, 
and what is elusive and deceptive resolves itself into crystal clearness.
Our life is a long and arduous quest after Truth " - Mahatma Gandhi 


Salute the national Flag my fellow citizens, and sing the song of freedom's love. Remember how freedom was won. By fighter's struggles, sacrifice ! Pray for the lives lost in the fight. And emulate their examples. Learn to be patriotic more and do your duty with fervor.

*Credits: Ranjan Sharma- Santoor, Sarod, Tabla, Pakhawaj and Tanpura




READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

PrinterFriendly

Share

Why you should have a Stop Loss of 8% ? Click to know more. Author is also on Facebook and Stockmusings.com

X