ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD : HOLD AND ACCUMULATE THIS FANTASTIC BUSINESS !!!

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold ADANI PORT & SEZ LTD in my investment portfolio.


Scrip Code: 532921 / ADANIPORTS

CMP:  Rs. 259.25; Buy at current levels.

Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 285; STOP LOSS – Rs. 238.50; Market Cap: Rs. 53,667.34 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 293.85 / Rs. 117.95; Total Shares: 207,00,51,620 shares; Promoters : 155,25,38,715 shares –75.00 %; Total Public holding : 51,75,12,905 shares – 25.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 45.09; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 9.74; Dividend: 50.00 % ; P/E: 26.61 times; Ind. P/E: 31.72; EV/EBITDA: 18.01.

Total Debt: Rs. 8,266.77 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 65,211.13 Cr.

Adani Port and Special Economic Zone LTD: The Company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Ahmedabad, Gujarat- India. It was earlier known as Gujarat Adani Port Limited and was set up as a Special Economic Zone at Mundra. Gujarat Adani Port Ltd was then merged with Mundra Special Economic Zone Ltd in April 2006 and the company was renamed as Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone Limited, to reflect the nature of business. In January 2012 the company board renamed the company as Adani Port and Special Economic Zone Ltd. Adani Port and Special Economic Zone Ltd is a subsidiary of Adani Enterprises Limited from September 2010 and this company engages in the development, operations and maintenance of multi product special economic zone and related infrastructure in India. The company came with an IPO on November, 1st 2007 offering 4,02,50,000 equity shares of Rs. 10 each for Rs. 440 per share raising Rs. 1,771.00 Cr. The object of the issue were to achieve the benefits of listing on stock exchanges & to raise capital for construction and development of basic infrastructure and allied facilities in the proposed SEZ at Mundra; to utilize the funds for construction and development of a terminal for Coal and other Cargo at the Mundra Port; for contributing towards investment in Adani Petronet (Dahej) Port Pvt Ltd, Adani Logistics Ltd and Inland Container Pvt Ltd. The shares got listed on November 27, 2007 at Rs. 770 a share. The company declared split in face value of its shares from Rs. 10 to Rs. 2 on 17 May 2010. The company through its Mundra port located in Gulf of Kutch, India provides cargo handling & other value-added port related services. It operates port infrastructure facilities of bulk cargo at Dahej, Gujarat, handles bulk, liquid and containerized cargo, single point mooring, storage, and transportation of cargo by road, rail and pipeline. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops and operates ports and port based infrastructure in India. The company operates a port at Mundra, Gujarat; a dry bulk terminal located in Dahej, Gujarat; a bulk and container handling terminal at the port of Hazira, Gujarat; and coal handling terminals at the port of Mormugao, Goa and Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh. It also operates 4 bulk terminals with 15 berths to handle dry and liquid bulk cargo, 3 container terminals with 6 berths, and 2 offshore single point mooring facilities for handling crude cargo at the port of Mundra; a dry bulk cargo terminal with 2 berths at the port of Dahej; and 1 bulk terminal with 3 berths to handle dry and liquid bulk cargo, and 1 container terminal with 2 berths to handle container cargo at the port of Hazira. In addition, the company is developing a bulk terminal located in Kandla, Gujarat; a rail corridor; and road and highway projects. Further, it offers port services, including marine, handling intra-port transport, storage, other value-added, and evacuation services for terminal operators, shipping lines and agents, exporters, importers, and other port users; and infrastructure leasing and logistics services at the Mundra Port through its surrounding infrastructure. Additionally, the company provides multi-modal cargo storage-cum-logistics services; and non-scheduled (passenger) services through its aircrafts. The company also operates container trains on specific railways routes; and provides multi-model cargo storage and logistics services through the development of inland container depots at various locations. It operates a fleet of approximately 2517 vessels. In addition, APSEZL provides nonscheduled (passenger) services through its aircrafts. The company has sixteen subsidiaries as of March 2014. Adani Port and SEZ ltd is locally compared with Essar Ports ltd, Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd, Pipavav Defence and globally with Avia Solutions Group Ab, DP World of UAE, Gemadept Corp, Kuwait and Gulf Link Transport Company, Luka Rijeka d.d, Wesco Aircraft Holdings Inc, Isewan Terminal Services Co., Ltd of Japan, Azuma Shipping Co., Ltd of Japan, Meiko Trans Co., Ltd of Japan, Rizhao Port Co. ltd; Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings Ltd.

Investment Rationale:

Adani Ports and SEZ is a part of global Adani Group, founded in 1988, India’s leading business houses with revenue of over $8.7 billion. Group’s logistics division denotes a large network of ports, Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and multimodal logistics - railways and ships. Adani owns and operates three ports – Mundra, Dahej and Hazira in India. The Mundra Port, which is the largest port in India, benefits from deep draft, first-class infrastructure and SEZ status. Adani is also developing ports at Mormugao and Kandla in India. India has a coastline of 7,517 kilometers (excluding the Andaman and Nicobar Islands), and with a port industry that has grown dramatically in past decade. India at present has 13 Major Ports and 187 Non-major Ports with total cargo traffic tonnage handled of about 934.88 mmt for the fiscal year 2013. Indian Ports handle approximately about 95 % of India's total trade in terms of volume and 70 % in terms of value. Most cargo ships that sail between East Asia & America, Europe and Africa passes through Indian territorial waters. Port traffic in India is set to rise about a CAGR of 15.9 % over FY12-14 and about 5.5 % for Non- major ports & about 22 % for major ports. It is estimated that in FY17 the cargo traffic may touch 1,758 million metric ton. India’s total external trade is estimated to have grown to $ 79,100 Cr in FY13 implying a CAGR of 17.7 % since FY06. The total volumes are expected to increase further as India continues its economic expansion, with real GDP growth in India is expected to be at an average of 7.3 % and 8.0 % per year for next 5 and 10 years from the fiscal year 2014, respectively, this will make India one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The consequence of strong GDP growth results in rising energy demand, and India currently meets about 75 %, of its total crude oil demand by imports. India’s crude imports touched 185 mmt in FY13 implying a CAGR of 8.7 % over FY07-13, and private ports have been good at attracting crude import traffic and Petroleum, oil and lubricants traffic at both major and non-major ports added up to 353.2 mmt in FY13. APSEZL is the largest private port in India in terms of volume. It handles the third highest container traffic in India and also handles the world’s largest fully mechanised coal terminal with a capacity of 60 MTPA. In FY13, Mundra port alone handled cargo traffic of 72. 3 MMT, from which container traffic contributed the most followed by Coal and Edible Oil, Chemicals and Petroleum, oil and lubricants. APSEZL at its port of Mundra handled 82.13 million tonnes of cargo in financial year 2013, a growth of 28 % year to year. Compared with the major as well as non-major ports of India, it ranks 2nd in terms of total cargo and container cargo handled during the year under review amongst all government owned commercial ports. The Special Economic Zone Policy was framed in April, 2000 with an objective to increase the exports, attract Foreign Direct Investment and to accelerate the economic growth of the country. The company's Multiproduct SEZ of 6,473 Hectare area at Mundra is the largest notified SEZ in the country.  The Exports from Mundra SEZ up to March, 2013 comes to about 7,357 Crores (cumulative). Mundra SEZ with its multi-modal connectivity including road, rail, sea port and airport is expected to attract more and more investments in the coming years. Further, based on approval from Government of India (GoI), the company has set up a Free Trade Warehousing Zone (FTWZ) in an area of 168.41 Hectare at Mundra. The development activities in the FTWZ SEZ have been initiated. The key success factors of the APSEZ is the strong availability of Draft Depth and Waterfront, it is closest port to Northern hinterland, the cargo generation is from its parent firm, they have long term cargo contracts. This makes the APSEZ a good pick in the port sector.

Outlook and Valuation:

Adani Port is the largest private Port in Indian with No.1 position in container cargo. Adani Ports is strategically located for global trade. Situated on the northern coast of the Gulf of Kutch on the west coast of India, it provides a convenient international trade gateway to Europe, Africa, America and the Middle East. Mundra has a deep draft (12.5 - 17 meters) which enables large vessels like panamax and super post panamax carriers to dock alongside its berth. The port has the world’s largest fully mechanised coal terminal with a capacity of 60 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). APSEZ is the only private sector port operator with presence across six ports in India. The company’s aim is to increase annual cargo handling capacity from 112.8 million MT in 2014 to 200 million MT by 2020. Company has its Economic Moat (A competitive advantage that one company has over the other companies in the same industry – by Warren Buffett) and with its expanding moats indicates a very strong sign of a future Multi-bagger stock. Recently, APSEZ acquired Dhamra Port Company Ltd (DPCL), located in Odisha a JV of Tata Steel and L&T Infrastructure Development Projects (L&T IDPL) for about Rs. 5,500 cr. Dhamra Port was commissioned in May 2011 with an 18 km approach channel and a dedicated 62.7 km rail link to Bhadrak. The DPCL as operator had been awarded a concession by the Odisha government to build & operate the port on Dhamra River in Bhadrak district for 34 years including 4 years of construction. This concession period may be extended by two additional terms of 10 years each. The first phase of construction was started in March 2007 with an investment of Rs. 3,500 Cr and following the acquisition the second phase of development will be initiated with 90 days and completion targeted in 30 months. This Port has two fully mechanized berths capable of handling coking coal, steam and thermal coal, limestone and iron ore. In FY14, Dhamra handled a total cargo of 14.3 million tonne. It also has 63 kilometers of private rail connectivity. Dhamra being a port outside federal government, DPCL is free to set its own rates. In comparison, rates at the Union Government controlled ports are set by the Tariff Authority for Major Ports (TAMP). Importantly, it is capable of allowing super cape size vessels, the biggest of the dry bulk ships with a capacity to load as much as 1,80,000 tonnes of cargo to dock. Dhamra after completion will be biggest success so far on the eastern sea board. This expansion will allow Dhamra Port to exceed 100 million tonnes of cargo capacity by the year 2020 and therefore allow Adani Ports to fulfil its stated vision of becoming a 200 million tonne Port business well before 2020. ADANI PORT is among the largest beneficiaries of an increasing demand-supply mismatch in India’s port capacity. APSEZ’s competitive advantages and attractive location plus connectivity provides a strong visibility of traffic for APSEZ. It should be noted that 90 % of APSEZ’s estimated traffic comprises of coal, crude oil, and container. Of this, coal and crude oil are not likely to see any impact from global macro concerns, while container traffic should continue to benefit from the shortage of capacity on India’s west coast. Amongst its other projects, the company sold its 100 % in the Abbot Point Coal Terminal (Australia) to its promoter group, Adani family. The equity portion in Abbot Point acquisition was around $235 million and rest was in debt, the entire equity and debt portion is transferred to the Adani family. The decision to sell off Abbot was to focus on the high growth Indian Port and logistics sector and to maintain its leadership position in India. Despite been in a capital intensive business, the debt situation for APSEZ is at very comfortable level at 0.89. Since inception, Mundra Port & SEZ (MPSEZ) has posted 35 % CAGR in revenue and with the stable cash flows from assured cargo and minimum working capital investment, it would be very important for the APSEZ to make more sensible capex in the future for growth. Based on the SOTP valuation method the value APSEZ comes at Rs. 285 per share, implying an upside of 10 % from current levels. The value of Mundra Port (core operating asset of APSEZ) alone comes at Rs. 147 per share, constituting 51.57 % of total value of APSEZ. Mundra Port, given its strategic positioning & diversified mix of cargo, enjoys competitive advantage and has a deeper economic moat & is expected to deliver strong volume growth. The company having delivered a strong track record of maintaining superior realization & margin in past and is expected to perform on track and the company has emerged as the preferred port due to superior infrastructure and technology, which facilitates faster transit of cargo, thereby reducing the overall cost of handling for logistic companies and end users. At the current market price of Rs. 259.25, the stock is trading at a PE of 25.41 x FY15E and 17.51 x FY16E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 10.20 in FY15E and Rs. 14.80 in FY16E. The SOTP (sum‐of‐the‐parts) valuation of Adani Port & Sez comes at Rs. 285. One can buy APSEZ with a target price of Rs. 285.00 for Medium to Long term investment. 

SOTP Valuation :-

Business Subsidiary	Value Per Share (in  ₹ Rs.)
Mundra Port	147.00
CT3/4/5	21.00
SEZ	37.00
Adani Petronet (Dahej) Port	11.00
Adani Mormugao Port	3.00
Adani Hazira Port	19.00
Adani Vizag Coal Terminal	1.00
Ennore Container Terminal	1.00
Adani Kandla Bulk Terminal	3.00
Dhamra Port	23.00
Adani logistics	5.00
Cash & cash equivalents	14.00
TOTAL	285.00

KEY FINANCIALS	FY13	FY14	FY15E	FY16E
SALES (₹ Crs)	3,576.60	4,824.00	6,509.10	7,867.30
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	1,623.20	1,739.60	2,102.00	3,062.20
EPS (₹)	8.10	8.40	10.20	14.80
PE (x)	31.90	30.80	25.50	17.50
P/BV (x)	7.80	6.10	5.00	4.00
EV/EBITDA (x)	25.90	21.80	16.40	13.10
ROE (%)	29.40	26.10	21.70	25.40
ROCE (%)	9.40	12.00	13.80	15.00

I would buy ADANI PORTS & SEZ LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 285.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of ₹ 238.50 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold ADANI PORT AND SEZ LTD in my investment portfolio.

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

RETURN ON CAPITAL

EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA LTD : WILL HAVE BLOCKBUSTER PERFORMANCE !!!

Scrip Code: 533261 / EROSMEDIA

CMP:  Rs. 228.90; Buy at current levels.

Medium to Long term Target – Rs. 265; STOP LOSS – Rs. 210.00; Market Cap: Rs. 2,105.26 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 243.80 / Rs. 106.75

Total Shares: 9,19,73,190 shares; Promoters : 6,88,33,290 shares –74.84 %; Total Public holding : 2,31,39,900 shares – 25.16 %; Book Value: Rs. 96.59; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 12.34; Dividend: 15.00 % ; P/E: 18.54 times; Ind P/E: 34.02; EV/EBITDA: 7.63.

Total Debt: 384.08 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 2,326.53 Cr.

EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA: EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA was incorporated as in 1977 and is based in Mumbai, India. It was started by Mr. Arjan Lulla. It was earlier known as Rishima International Private Ltd and changed its name to Eros Multimedia Private Limited on July 25, 2000. Company again changed its name to Eros International Media Private Ltd on Nov 20, 2008, On Nov 18, 2009 company again changed its name to the present Eros International Media Ltd. It is subsidiary of Eros Worldwide FZ Llc. Eros International Media Limited operates in the media and entertainment sector in India and internationally. It engages in sourcing content through acquisition, co-production, or production; the theatrical distribution network operation; licensing films for cable, satellite, and terrestrial television; and the distribution of Tamil film content in Western Europe through its own television station. The company came out with an IPO of about 2 Cr shares in September 2010 at Rs. 175 totaling to Rs. 350 Crs at the price of Rs. 175 and got listed at Rs. 213.35 on 6 Oct 2010. The purpose of the issue was to acquire and co-produce Indian films. The company also distributes content through physical formats, such as DVD, VCD, and Blu-rays, as well as the digital mediums comprising Video On Demand, Direct To Home, Internet, mobile, and in-flight entertainment; and involved in music publishing and distribution activities. In addition, it provides production planning and visual effects services for films; engages in the acquisition, production, and distribution of Tamil films worldwide; and involved in cable or DTH licensing, as well as trading and exporting international film rights. The company owns approximately 1,100 films comprising Hindi, Tamil, and other regional languages & has aggregated rights to over 1,900 films plus additional 700 films for which the company holds digital rights only. In the year 2006, Eros International Plc, the holding company of the Eros Group, became the first Indian company to list on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange. On November 13, 2013, Eros International got listed on New York Stock Exchange at $11.10 a share, post NYSE listing, the company has cancelled its shares from Alternative Investment Market (AIM) london. Eros International PLC, is the Ultimate Holding Company based at Isle of Man, Eros Worldwide FZ-LLC is the holding company based in UAE and the subsidiaries include - Eros International Films Pvt Ltd, Copsale Ltd, Big Screen Entertainment Pvt Ltd, EyeQube Studios Pvt Ltd, EM Publishing Pvt Ltd, Eros Animation Pvt Ltd, Eros Digital Pvt ltd, Eros International Ltd (UK), Digicine PTE Ltd, Ayngaran International Ltd (Isle of Man). It distributes content through retail outlets and it’s Website under the Eros and Ayngaran labels. Eros International Media can be locally compared with PVR Ltd, Prime Focus ltd, Reliance Broadcast Network Ltd, Balaji Telefilms ltd, Media Matrix Worldwide Ltd, Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision Ltd, Tips Industries Ltd and globally compared with Walt Disney Co of US California, Time Warner Inc of USA, IG Port Incorporated of Japan, Twenty First Century Fox, Inc of New York, Lions Gate Entertainment Corp of California, UTV Media PLC of UK, Dreamworks Animation Skg Inc of California.

Investment Rationale:

EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA LTD is a leading global company in the Indian films and entertainment industry. It acquires co-produces and distributes Indian language films in multiple formats. Eros continues its emphasis on non-theatrical revenue streams. Eros has two advertising free TV channels HBO Defined and HBO Hits along with HBO, these channels are doing pretty well. These channels are currently available on most of the DTH operators. The Online entertainment portal-EROS NOW is expected to pick up going ahead, as the broadband connectivity in India improves with 3G/4G networks becoming more affordable. In August, 2013 Eros announced that it is partnering with A.R. Rahman to produce a movie with the music legend. The company continues to get its movie selection right, and which is evident from its presence in five out of top 10 box office releases in the year gone by. Movies such as "Goliyon Ki Rasleela-Ram Leela, Jai Ho, R…Rajkumar, Grand Masti, One Nenokkadine (Telugu), Raanjhanaa, Singh Saab the Great, Krrish 3 (Overseas), Yeh Jawaani Hai Deewani (Overseas)" turned out to be the good bets for the company. In addition, Eros also enjoys a competitive advantage in terms of a strong international presence owing to its parent company EROS PLC. Eros, for high budget movies, generally recovers whole production cost even before theatrical release in the form of sale of music and satellite rights and 39 % guaranteed cost recovery from its parent for international distribution. In addition, monetisation of its huge movie library will over pay TV, innovative box office performance linked satellite rights and preview over premium TV (HBO Defined and HBO Hits) will further reduce its dependence on theatrical revenues, which currently stand at 40 %. It is expected that its revenues from TV licensing can grow at 14 % CAGR in FY14-16 to reach Rs. 352.7 crore in FY16E. The company is expanding its regional presence with a number of releases in the Telugu, Tamil and other regional markets. The year for EROS ended with about 32 regional films, which currently accounts for about 20-25 % of its revenues. The company expects the same to reach about 30-35 % of revenues. India has varying entertainment tax rates across the states, and this impacts the EBITDA margins of EROS. With the implementation of GST would immensely reduce entertainment tax, which in turn helps EBITDA margins to grow by 1 % to 2 %. The listing of the parent company in the international markets will help Eros with necessary capital inflow and will also help it to increase its investments in good quality content. In addition, the good grasp of its parent in the international markets helps Eros to command a relative advantage in the international distribution space. Parent company’s top management downplayed the street concerns about significant changes in respect of terms for sharing overseas films rights on deal renewal in October 2014. Under the current deal, Parent Company i.e. Eros International Plc will pay 39 % of film cost for overseas rights to Eros International Media Ltd. It is believed that the clarity from Parent Company will remove major overhang on the stock. Here, Eros de-risk its business by pre-selling the overseas right to overseas entities that have significant presence. Through this, Eros has generally been able to recover nearly 40 % of its cost of acquisitionof a film, thus, significantly reducing the risk associated with a film's offtake as well as ensuring cash flows. The company also recovers 35 % to 40 % of its costs by selling movie rights to channels such as Colors, Zee TV and Star Plus. Together, with such strategies helps to reduce the risk inherent in the film production and distribution business. Thus, Eros has been able to gain from multiple revenue streams and limit the losses quite significantly in case movies do not perform well in theatre screens. Eros also gains from satellite, After the telecom regulator mandated digitising cable networks in metros and top cities, DTH players and digital cable companies have been able to substantially increase the number of subscribers to their networks. This has led to growth in subscription revenues for satellite channels. It is also increasingly helping them broadcast new movies soon after after their release.

Outlook and Valuation:

Eros is a leading producer/distributor and has one of the largest film libraries of over 1200 films. Eros International has exhibited strong growth in the number of movie releases by releasing 77 movies in FY13 and 69 in FY14 across Hindi, Tamil/Telugu and other languages. The company continues to get its movie selection right, evident from its presence in five out of top 10 box office releases in the year gone by. The recent FICCI-KPMG report anticipates the market size of Indian Film Indusrty is set to grow at a compounded annual rate of 11.5 % from 2013 to touch Rs. 19,330 Cr by 2017. But the television industry is set to grow at a much faster pace of 18 % over the same period and touch Rs. 84,760 Cr by 2014. Players such as EROS would benefit from this trend as they increasingly look to tap the small screen for monetising films. There is increased penetration in Indian markets, which is expected to even intensify further, owing to a revolution brought in by digital technology. Wireless broadband, growing internet usage, cable digitisation and higher DTH adoption would further drive Indian M&E industry. The report also noted that smart phones, tablets, gaming devices have laid the foundation of a new wave in the industry.  Eros co-produces 60% of the movies while the rest are either acquired or produced. The company has had long industry associations, a consistent track record of releasing three to four movies of the top 10 movies in the box office and a wide distribution network. Eros has been able to develop strong relationships with key figures in the Indian film industry, which help it secure key films and build a strong portfolio of movies. The results were slightly better than the market expectations even though the number of movies released was much lower. The cost of acquiring movies has been rising sharply and the management indicated that the company would refrain from bidding aggressively in line with its strategy of focusing on profitability. This strategy would help margins, revenue growth of the company, until the content price corrects, would be under pressure. The company has a good movie pipeline for the next two years. Multiplexes like PVR have plans of aggressive expansion, which would further benefit producers/distributors. The Catalogue monetization led positive surprise at both revenue and margin front for EROS. Its Revenue grew by 17 % YoY to Rs. 433 crore in Q3 FY14. This positive surprise at revenue front was led due to huge spurt in catalogue monetization which increased by around 75 % YoY to Rs. 60 crore in Q3 FY14. Revenue from other main streams such as theatrical rights were Rs. 170 crore which is 39 % of revenue and satellite rights of Rs.110 crore which is 25 % of revenue in Q3 FY14. The EBITDA margin of EROS improved by 6.79 % QoQ to 31.3 % in 3Q FY14 which is significantly better. Higher than expected EBITDA margin was primarily led by catalogue monetization as minimum expenditure is incurred for earning the same and hence top-line directly flows to bottom-line. Movies lined-up for FY15E looks promising. The company is planning to release in FY15E eight movies of category “A” of which 4 will be in Hindi and 4 in regional languages such as Tamil & Telugu. Big movies lined up for release in H1 FY15E such as Happy Ending starring Saif Ali, Action Jackson starring Ajay Devgan and Sonakshi Sinha and already released Kochadaiyaan starring mega star Rajnikanth, Deepika Padukone and music composed by A R Rehman. The management expects EBITDA margin to be around 25 % in FY14E and FY15E as compared to historical average of 22 %, this will be supported by revenue flow from catalogue monetization which has relatively higher margin as compared to other revenue streams. The company’s net debt at the end of Q3 FY14 stood at Rs. 280 crore which is more or less at the same level in Q3 FY13. Also with the tie-up with Tata Sky in December 2013, Eros has covered around 80 % of 80 million DTH homes. The company is witnessing significant traction for HBO premium channels and expect momentum to pick up further once it starts marketing services aggressively. The production cost during 9M FY14 stood at Rs. 600 crore and for FY14E is likely to be in the range of Rs. 750 crore to Rs. 800 crore. In FY15E, production cost will be in the range of Rs. 800 crore to Rs. 900 crore. It is believed that with the strong movie slate lined-up for release in FY15E will support the mid-teen growth rate in the coming year. Further, clarity from Parent Company in respect of terms for sharing overseas films rights on agreement renewal will remove major overhang on the stock. The content pipeline of the company is exciting but timely release of content remains a doubt. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. Eros is trading at a significant discount to other media businesses. Factoring in revenue and PAT CAGR of 17.4 % and 14.3 %, respectively, in FY13-15, Eros could be a good buy at a Current Market Price of Rs. 228.90 and at this price, stock is trading at a P/E of 9.45x FY15E and 8.32x FY16E. The company can post EPS of Rs. 24.20 for FY15E and Rs. 27.50 for FY16E. One can buy EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA LIMITED with a target price of Rs. 265.00 for Medium to Long term investment.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY13	FY14	FY15E	FY16E
SALES (₹ Crs)	1,068.00	1,135.00	1,344.00	1,490.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	154.00	200.00	223.00	253.00
EPS (₹)	16.80	21.70	24.20	27.50
PE (x)	11.30	8.80	7.90	6.90
P/BV (x)	1.80	1.40	1.20	1.00
EV/EBITDA (x)	8.70	6.60	6.00	5.60
ROE (%)	15.70	16.50	15.60	15.00
ROCE (%)	15.90	18.50	18.00	17.30

I would buy EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 265.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of ₹ 210.00 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

RETURN ON CAPITAL