CMP:
Rs. 1610.90; Market Cap: Rs. 31,408.39 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1947.70 /
Rs. 1200.10
Total
Shares: 19,49,74,191 shares; Promoters : 12,04,82,495 shares –61.79 %; Total Public
holding : 7,44,91,696 shares – 38.21 %; Book
Value: Rs. 391.63; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 50.91; Dividend: 134 % ;
P/E: 31.37 times; Ind. P/E: 26.47; EV/EBITDA: 17.42x
Total
Debt: ZERO; Enterprise Value: Rs. 28,816.34 Cr.
CONTAINER
CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD:
The Company was incorporated in 1988 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Container Corporation of India Limited operates in the Railroads, line-haul
operating sector. It provides multimodal logistics support services for export
and import, and domestic trade and commerce in India. It primarily engages in
carrier business, as well as provides freight transportation services by rail
and road and providing inland transport by rail for containers, ports, air
cargo complexes and cold chains. The company’s business includes three distinct
activities, that of a Carrier, and container terminal operator and warehouse
operator which provides various facilities, including warehousing, container
parking, repair facilities, and office complexes. In addition, it operates in
two divisions – EXIM & Domestic, both the divisions provides services
including transit warehousing for import and export cargo; bonded warehousing,
enabling importers to store cargo and take partial deliveries; less than
container load (LCL) consolidation, and reworking of LCL cargo at nominated
hubs; and air cargo clearance using bonded trucking. All the activities of the
company revolve around this business and all its operation are in India. As of
March 31, 2015, the company operated a fleet of approximately 20,247 owned and
leased containers, 52 reach stackers, 17 gantry cranes, and 63 container
terminals of which 13 are EXIM terminals, 35 combined container terminals and
15 domestic terminals and 13,111 wagons. CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD is compared to Arshiya
Ltd, Kesar Terminals, Transport Corporation of India Ltd, Shreyas Shipping, Gati
Ltd, Gateway Distripacks Ltd, Allcargo Logistics Limited, VRL Logistics,
Snowman Logistics nationally and globally with AMERCO Inc of USA, CSX Corp of
USA, SixtSE of Germany, VTG Aktiengesellschaft of Germany, Stagecoach Group Plc
of United Kingdom, Northgate Plc of United Kingdom, National Express Group Plc
of United Kingdom, DSV A/S of Denmark, Dazhong Transportation of China,
ComfortDelGro Corporation Ltd of Singapore, CJ Korea Express Corporation of
South Korea, Central Japan Railway Co of Japan, CAR Inc of China, Bangkok Metro
Public Co of Thailand, Asciano Ltd of Australia, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
of Canada, Con-way Inc of USA, Kansas City Southern of USA.
Investment
Rationale:
Outlook and
Valuation:
Container Corp of India Ltd (CONCOR)
is a leading rail freight transporter that is graduating to be a multimodal
logistic player. CONCOR is
an undisputed leader in the sector. It is set to benefit from
GDP/EXIM revival and DFCs completion that will accelerate containerization. Despite
private player’s entering in 2006, it has maintained to retain its leadership in
market share that can be attributed to its scale and vantage locations. Long
term growth acceleration could come from its pre-emptive capex on multimodal
parks. Company enjoys monopolistic situation so has a huge moat. Company has
its Economic Moat (A competitive
advantage that one company has over the other companies in the same industry –
by Warren Buffett) expanding moats which is a very strong sign of a future
Multi-bagger stock. On financial side Exim
revenues contribute around 84 % of Concor’s total revenues. Exim volumes posted
a CAGR of 7 % in FY10-15 with FY15 posting robust growth of 11 % YoY, thereby,
hinting towards a revival. Further, container volumes at major ports grew 7 %
YoY. Consequently, going ahead, driven by buoyant container volume growth at
major ports, it can be expected that Exim volumes for Concor to post a CAGR of 9
% over FY15-17E. Further, as JNPT port is one of the largest volume
contributors to Concor, its volumes posted growth of nearly 7 % YoY in FY15. For
Q1FY16, port wise volume share from JNPT declined to 42 % as compared to 45 %
in FY14. However, the decline in volume share at JNPT was compensated by an increase
in share from Mundra and Pipavav port where Concor’s share stood at 25 % and 21
%, respectively. As volumes pick-up at ports, Concor focuses on Exim to improve
its earnings. Concor’s revenues grew at a CAGR of 8.5 % in FY11-FY15 as
container volumes remained sluggish; except 2014. However, going ahead, with an
improved market share in private ports such as Mundra and Gujarat Pipavav, it
can be expected that volumes to improve. Further, the government’s “Make in India”
campaign will perk up trade volumes for exports. In turn, this will drive
higher volumes for Concor. On the EBITDA front also, Concor can post a 21 % CAGR
over FY15-17E visà - vis CAGR of 7 % over FY11-15. As EBITDA margins have
remained under pressure over the years due to a steep increase in freight rates
by railways, going forward, hikes will pause, thereby allowing the company to
stabilise its margins. Also, introduction of double stacking and hub and spoke
model for its operations is expected to provide further scope to improve
margins which can be in the range of 23 % to 25 % in future. Further, introduction
of PFTs is expected to improve earnings of the company in future. Consequently,
PAT is also expected to post a CAGR of 18 % over FY15-17E against 7 % in
FY11-15. Going ahead, with FDI in rail and projects such as dedicated
freight corridor and goods and services tax (GST) on the priority list of the
government, Concor’s growth and margins will recover at a faster pace. Concor
faces intense competition from private operators like In logistics Solutions,
Boxtrans Logistics, Gateway Distriparks and Arshiya International as private
container rail business is growing gradually which forces these players to have
tie-ups with Concor for shipping lines cargo to drive their Exim volumes. Most
private players have also accelerated their expansions and rolling stock
addition programme to get a share in the Exim business. Another
comforting factor is the Healthy balance sheet of CONCOR. Concor
today has a cash balance of around Rs. 2,600 Cr on its balance sheet which would
yield the company around 7.5 % to 9 % per annum. Concor
is of a zero debt company, with substantial cash balance and no funding issues.
As GST and DFC are expected to roll out in FY17 and
CY18, the near term volume growth for Concor is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9
% over FY15-17E, thereby leading to revenue & earnings CAGR of 20 % each in
the same period. Also, PFTs becoming operational in due course of time are
expected to add another revenue line for Concor. Further, any near term risk of
adverse freight rate movement is expected to be mitigated by higher Exim volume
generation. At
the current market price of Rs. 1,610.90, the stock is trading at 28.61 x FY16E and about 23.90 x FY17E. Company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 56.30for FY16E and of Rs. 67.40 for FY17E. Finally, with a strong balance sheet and superior cash flow company can be assigned P/E multiple of 25x FY17E EPS. It
is expected that the company will keep its growth story intact in the coming
quarters also with rationalization of haulage charges by IR or Pickup in
containerized trade both in EXIM and domestic segment. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.
| KEY FINANCIALS | FY14 | FY15 | FY16E | FY17E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SALES (₹ Crs) | 5,109.00 | 5,574.00 | 6,556.00 | 7,100.30 |
| NET PROFIT (₹ Cr) | 950.00 | 1,048.00 | 1,097.00 | 1,310.00 |
| EPS (₹) | 50.00 | 53.70 | 56.30 | 67.40 |
| PE (x) | 35.10 | 32.40 | 29.00 | 24.40 |
| P/BV (x) | 4.80 | 4.40 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 28.50 | 24.20 | 20.50 | 17.20 |
| ROE (%) | 13.80 | 13.70 | 13.00 | 14.90 |
| ROCE (%) | 12.80 | 12.00 | 12.70 | 18.70 |
*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold CONCOR Ltd in my any of the portfolios.
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