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Sunday, January 23, 2011

MUNDRA PORT & SEZ : A VALUE BUY

Scrip Code: 532921 / MUNDRAPORT
CMP:  Rs. 140.00; Buy at Rs.130 - Rs.135; Target: Rs. 176.00; Market Cap: Rs. 28,047.51 cr. 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 185.25 / Rs. 114; Total Shares: 200,33,94,100 shares; Promoters : 163471449 shares – 77.22 %; Total Public holding :48206111 shares – 22.77 %; Book Value: Rs. 17.41; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 3.89; Div: 40 %. P/E: 35.98 times; Ind P/E: 23.14; EV/EBITDA: 28.00

Total Debt: Rs. 3,706.25 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 30,671.84 cr

Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone (MPSEZ) is one of India’s leading private ports with a current cargo handling capacity of 70mt. In addition, the company will install another 65mt of cargo handling capacity in the next 12 months. Moreover, MPSEZ has 24,000 acres of land, of which 16,000 acres have been notified as SEZ land.

Well set to benefit from expected rise in external trade Mundra Port and SEZ’s (MPSEZ) port infrastructure is amongst the best in India, which should help it capitalise on the expected rise in external trade. In the next few years, sharp rise in coal traffic will help MPSEZ post a 35% CAGR in traffic handled at the port over FY10−FY13E, which will lead to a 35% CAGR in its revenues over this period. It is also expect land sale in the SEZ area to pick up, although clarity on the tax treatment for the SEZ remains an overhang. The March ’12 target price stands at Rs 175/sh, which comprises Rs 122/sh for the Mundra port, Rs 34/sh for the SEZ, Rs 10/sh for other port concessions and Rs 8/sh for liquid investments and cash. Potential opportunities for port development in India and international geographies can lead to further value creation. Initiate BUY for MPSEZ. Port capacity will nearly double over next one year: MPSEZ’s port infrastructure is one of the best in India with deep draft, excellent road/rail connectivity, proximity to north India (as against Mumbai-based ports) and a large storage area. Currently, MPSEZ has a handling capacity of 70mn tonnes (mt) with a 15mt single point mooring (SPM), 25mt bulk and 30mt container cargo capacities. It will add another 65mt in the next 12 months—50mt of the integrated coal terminal and a 15mt SPM facility (referred to as SPM-II). We are also building in another 110mt capacity to be added over the next decade. Rise in coal, crude imports to drive near-term traffic growth: MPSEZ will commission its 50mtpa integrated coal terminal in Q4FY11. This will cater to the coal import requirement of Tata Power (for its 4,000MW Mundra UMPP) and Adani Power (4,620MW Mundra power plant). In addition, MPSEZ will handle crude imports to be used for the 9mtpa Guru Gobind Singh refinery (GGSRL), expected to be commissioned in H2FY12. These imports (coal and crude) will account for a sizable portion (39mtpa) of incremental traffic at the port. SEZ land sale to pick up in H2: MPSEZ has 24,000 acres of land, of which 16,000 acres have been notified as SEZ land. In addition, another 8,000 acres of land are in various stages of transfer. While MPSEZ has not seen any sale of SEZ land in H1FY11, It is understood that it is looking to consummate sales of 240 acres in H2FY11. A key risk on the SEZ business is the potential removal of tax concessions for SEZ developers and units under the proposed Direct Tax Code. It has revenue/earnings CAGR of 35 % & 30 % over FY10-FY13E; the Mar ’12 SOTP-based target price stands at Rs 175/sh.  A key upside risk can come from value creation in new port projects that MPSEZ is exploring in India and overseas. Downside risks can emanate from any changes in the tax rules for SEZ developer and units.
Valuation matrix 
(X) Times FY 10 FY 11 (e)FY 12 (e)FY 13 (e)
P / E @ CMP43.732.423.220.0
P / E @ TARGET52.038.627.723.8
EV / EBITDA @ CMP28.023.516.012.9

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

SUZLON's chances of bankruptcy is LESS.....

People are talking about SUZLON ENERGY's bankruptcy & that the company cant service its debt in time ...blah blah...blah...Now they know the difference between a good asset company & bad asset company and still they talk like this shame....
ANYWAYS...here's what I feel about Suzlon, agreed that it has the debts of Rs.9,252 cr & Reserves of Rs.5,892 Cr.(which can take care of losses).
As for the question on loans repayments then here's the answer –
Suzlon took loans for acquisition of Hansen & REpower a german base company. They sold some of the stake in Hansen but they eventually raised their stake in REpower by 14.4 % to current 90.50%.
Share holding Pattern of Click  REPOWER AG -
SUZLON 90.50 %83,25,845.245 Shs
FREE FLOAT9.50 %8,73,983.755 Shs
TOTAL 100 %91,99,829 Shs
Current Market Price of REpower – 114.5 Euros/Sh (JAN 12 2011)(58.72/1Euro)
The Free float of REpower is 9.5% - 8,73,983.755 Shs = 100.07 m Euros, around Rs.587.62 Cr, According to German laws Suzlon has to buy the entire 9.5 % of REpower in order to integrate REpower’s assets into itself.
NOW , REpower has Total Asset of 1,032.62 m Euros; Shareholders Fund – 475.97 m Euros, EPS – 6.34 Euro/Sh; Dividend paid 1.54 Euro/sh; Total debt of 556.6 m Euros; Debt/Eq – 0.40. NP – 57.93 m Euros.
So, my friend SUZLON adds Rs.2794.89 Cr to its books by just paying Rs.587.62 Cr.Suzlon's debts of Rs.9,252; Reserves of Rs.8686.89 Cr (5,892 + 2794.89 of Repower); D/E ratio will be 1.05. NOT BAD..
The stake buy of REpower’s 9.5% will cost Rs.587.62 cr which is possible as Suzlon has recently completed its rights issue of Rs.1180 cr & has restructured its debts .. Off course this may take long time, say up to a year but fundamentals will improve once this REpower stake is bought..
NOW WHAT YOU THING ABOUT THISSSS

Here are some details of REPOWER AG - CLICK HERE
Fiscal 2009/10 (m Euros)Fiscal 2008/09 (m Euros)
SALES1,303.57721,209.0907
EBIT98.31676.8988
PBT83.8576.5526
NET PROFIT57.930351.9365
Total Asset1,032.6242928.3723
Share Holders Equity475.9717408.34
Number of Shares (1 Euro)9199829 shs9177039 shs
EPS6.34 Euro5.75 Euro
Total Dividend14.44373153NIL
Opert. Cash flow119.3
TOTAL DEBT556.6
Net Working Capital195.6
Net W.Capital Ratio14.8 %
Share holders fund464.498048
Minority Interest 11.473691
Revaluation Reserve0.776
Retained Earnings147.707203
Cash211.719

Monday, January 3, 2011

GITANJALI GEMS LTD - Buy on every Dips

Scrip Code : 532715 / GITANJALI
CMP :  Rs. 210.85; Buy at Rs. 190-195
Target: Rs. 370.00 - DIWALI 2011
Market Cap : Rs. 1776.83 cr
52 Week High/Low : Rs. 394.95/Rs. 92.55
Total Shares : 84270000 shares; Promoters : 45472424 shares – 53.95 %; Public holding : 9754593 shares – 11.58 %
Book Value : Rs. 241.60; Face Value : Rs. 10; EPS : Rs. 20.99
P/E : 10.08 times; Ind P/E : 12.73; EV/EBITDA : 12.65
Total Debt : Rs. 1601.46 cr; Enterprise Value : Rs. 3384.28 cr.

Gitanjali Gems Ltd - Gitanjali Gems is one of the largest manufacturers and retailers of diamonds and jewellery in India. It sources rough diamonds from various primary or secondary sources then engages in the cutting and polishing the rough diamond for export to the international market as well as manufacture and sale of diamond and other jewellery through its retail operations in India and abroad. The company was started in 1966 as a partnership. It came with an IPO in the year 2006 with 1.70 cr shares at the price band of Rs.170 -195. The demand for diamond and jewellery products is largely dependents on higher employment and economic levels, which leave higher disposable income in the hands of the consumers. In downturn consumers can quite easily scale down their consumption of jewellery and diamonds.
Gitanjali Gems has got two-diamond manufacturing facilities located at Borivali in Mumbai and at the Special Economic Zone in Surat. It has also got a 100% export oriented unit in SEEPZ Mumbai, which produces gold and platinum studded jewellery. There are also jewellery-manufacturing facilities at MIDC, Andheri, which produces branded jewellery for the retail operations in India. The company has a workforce of over 2300 employees.
Company sells its jewellery under the brand - Asmi - Premium work wear collection & has 104 outlets, 2 exclusive stores; Sangini - Entire product range including bridal jewelry; Nakshatra - Entire product range including bridal jewelry available with 374 retailers and 1 franchisee. More franchisees are being added; Gili - Diamond jewelry at reasonable prices having 256 outlets of which 3 are exclusive stores; Vivvaha - Wedding jewelry; Maya - Gold jewelry for wedding and other similar events; D’Damas - International quality designs combined with Indian values sells through 380 retailers, 2 exclusive outlets, 3 shop-in-malls and 21 franchisees; Hoop - Fashion Silver Jewelry.
The Gitanjali Group has acquired Lucera for Rs 25 crores in 2008. In October 2009, the UK-based Brand Finance, valued the four leading brands of the company at Rs.514 crore (Nakshatra), Rs.468 crore (Gili), Rs.309 cr. (D'Damas) and Rs.210 cr. (Asmi), respectively. GGL is not only gearing towards improving sales but is also looking at multiplying the value of these brands by 1.5 to 2 times by 2011-2012.
Recently, Gitanjali Gems Ltd. (GGL) is in talks with global PE investors Blackstone and CX Partners to divest 10 % of equity to raise $100 million in its restructured jewellery brand holding company. According to sources, in a separate valuation prepared by these PE players, the holding company is valued at close to Rs 5,000 crore, three times the current market capitalisation of Rs 1,700 crore of the entire group. Sources say, around Rs 50 crore will go to the GGL account, while the remaining Rs 400 crore will be re-invested in the company for working capital and inventory build up.
So the question comes that how the subsidiary would have a higher valuation than the parent company? The answer may be that the subsidiary would be a low-debt company, with a minimum working capital cycle, along with high possibility of return on investment. Considering half of the PE multiple of the industry leader, Tanishq, the valuation could be much higher. GGL’s current book value is close to Rs 2,200 crore. This company is in a low margin business because of raw material costs, which is Gold. Now Gitanjali holds gold stock from 11000 levels, so no more margin pressure from raw material side till now. 
On 28th December 2010 - Promoter Mr.Mehul Choksi bought 15113 shares at Rs.195.75/sh, making his holding to 38274421 shares a 45.42%.   
On 29th December 2010 - Promoter Mr.Mehul Choksi bought 100000 shares at Rs.213.57/sh, making his holding to 38374421 shares a 45.54%. 
MORE PROMOTERS DEAL - CLICK HERE 
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Saturday, January 1, 2011

FMP's Better than Bank FD's

Fixed Maturity Plans are being offered by various banks now a days, So what are these FMP's ?


A Fixed Maturity Plans (FMP) is that instrument which invests in bank Certificates of Deposits (CD) & which are compared with bank FDs & a FMP that invests in corporate debt are compared with fixed deposits of corporates of similar rating of credit.
FMP's also invests in Debt & money market  instruments- typically AAA rate corporate bonds. The tenure's are around One year & almost 100 % of their funds are invested in Commercial paper (CP) & CD's. These CP's & CD's rates tend to shoot up in a raising interest rates regime, making FMP investment more attractive. Fund managers of  FMP's does not need to Buy/Sell the instrument on continuous basis, which means low management fees.

FMP's have a minimum investment of Rs 5000. Capital gains on FMP will be short term capital if hold for less than 1 year and at short term capital tax rate, which is clubbed to your income for that year and taxed according to the tax bracket you fall in. If you hold for more than 1 year than long term capital gain tax will be applicable
Whereas in FD's the tax on income is based on the tax slab the investor is in (which can be as high as 31%) the investor can earn tax free dividends (subject to dividend distribution tax of 14 % for retail investors & for corporates 22 %). So if you are in top tax bracket then the capital gain on that FMP will be taxed accordingly. Indexation method will apply to FMP's if holded over a year. So I would prefer to go for 2 year FMP rather than 1 year as they give better tax adjusted returns.
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