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Wednesday, September 23, 2015

LARSEN & TUBRO LTD : BEST PLAY & GRAB AT EVERY DIPS !!!

Scrip Code: 500510 LT
CMP:  Rs. 1484.95; Market Cap: Rs. 1,38,144.74 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1893.80 / Rs. 1401.00. 
Total Shares: 93,02,98,999 shares; Promoters : Not Defined – 00.00 %; Total Public holding 5 % or more : 34,09,54,585 shares – 36.65 %; Total Public holding 1 % or more : 41,41,62,953 shares – 44.52 %; Public holding : 17,51,81,461 shares – 18.83 %Book Value: Rs. 398.31; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 52.26; Dividend: 812.50 % ; P/E: 28.41 times; Ind. P/E: 16.72; EV/EBITDA: 18.27. Total Debt: Rs. 90,698.61 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 2,22,997.45 Cr.

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD: LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD was founded in 1938. Larsen & Toubro Limited operates as a technology, engineering, construction, and manufacturing company worldwide. Larsen’s divisions include Engineering and Construction Projects (E&C), Heavy Engineering (HED), Engineering Construction and Contracts (ECC), Electrical and Electronics (EBG), Machinery and Industrial Products (MIPD), and Information Technology & Engineering Services. These divisions undertake engineering design and construction of infrastructure and industrial projects, including civil, mechanical, and electrical & instrumentation engineering. The customer profile includes names, such as Samsung, Chevron, Bechtel, Kvaerner, Pirelli, Siam Michelin, and Goodyear. The Heavy Engineering (HED) division manufactures and supplies custom designed and engineered critical equipment and systems to the needs of core-sector industries and the defense sector. It is the preferred supplier of equipment for a select range of products, globally. The Division has entered into Shipbuilding business and engages in construction of specialty commercial vessels and warships for the navy, as well as the coast guard.  The Engineering Construction and Contracts (ECC) division delivers engineering, procurement, and contract solutions in the oil and gas, petrochemicals, power, and water space industries. The Electrical and Electronics (EBG) division offers solutions in low & medium voltage categories. Its businesses consists of switchgear, switchboards for different applications, including marine, meters, automation systems, petroleum dispensing pumps, medical equipment and tooling solutions and has operations at different locations in India (two in Mumbai and one each in Ahmednagar, Mysore, Faridabad and Coimbatore) and one unit for manufacturing operations in China. The Information Technology and Engineering Services Information and Technology Services division offers e-Engineering solutions, including product design and engineering analysis, engineering process support, production and plant engineering, asset information management, and design automation to high end technology verticals, such as automotive, aerospace, marine and ship design, plant engineering, and industrial products. This division also provides embedded systems and solutions comprising supply of hardware, application software, and enclosure design for electronics product design and development in automotive, medical, semiconductor, and industrial products. On November 30, 2009, Nuclear Power Corporation Of India Limited and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. announced the formation of a JV company to produce special steels and ultra-heavy forgings. On January 22, 2010, Larsen & Toubro Ltd. formed a JV with Sapuracrest Petroleum Bhd to undertake installation of pipelines and construction of offshore rigs and platforms in India, West Asia and South East Asia. In July 2012, L&T’s subsidiary Tamco Switchgear acquired Henikwon Corporation Sdn Bhd. L&T does business in Malaysia, the United States, the Unite Kingdom, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Larsen & Tubro Ltd is compared globally with Hyundai Development Company Ltd of South Korea, Daelim Industrial Company Ltd of South Korea, Nippo Corporation of Japan Ssangyong Engineering & Construction, Aker Solutions ASA and JTEKT Corporation.

Investment Rationale:
Larsen & Toubro is a major technology, engineering, construction, manufacturing and financial services conglomerate, with global operations. L&T addresses critical needs in key sectors - Hydrocarbon, Infrastructure, Power, Process Industries and Defense – for customers in over 30 countries around the world. L&T is engaged in core, high impact sectors of the economy and their integrated capabilities span the entire spectrum of ‘design to deliver’. With over 7 decades of a strong, customer focused approach and a continuous quest for world-class quality, L&T have unmatched expertise across Technology, Engineering, Construction, Infrastructure Projects and Manufacturing, and maintain a leadership in all their major lines of business. Every aspect of L&T's businesses is characterised by professionalism and high standards of corporate governance. Sustainability is embedded into our long-term strategy for growth. The Company’s manufacturing footprint extends across eight countries in addition to India. L&T has several international offices and a supply chain that extends around the globe. The Infrastructure spending in India as a percentage of GDP has declined meaningfully to just 3 % to 4 % from peak levels of 7 % to 8 %. And large projects in segments like urban infrastructure, water & irrigation, railways, and power T&D would pick up. The manufacturing segments like defence, power generation, and forgings provide strong opportunities. Another important driver is industrial capex – particularly hydrocarbons, metals, and fertilizers – both in India and overseas. L&T have received repeat orders from its loyal customers in the IT and residential business lines. Kannur and Cochin green field airports were secured during the year emphasizing its expertise in building aviation infrastructure. L&T also secured major orders from its esteemed customers like Bombay Realty, Omkar developers, Oberoi and DLF group for the construction of elite high rise residential towers in western and northern India. In southern India, prestigious orders were received from Prestige, Provident and Skylark group for the construction of residential towers. With the modernization of Tier 1 & 2 city airports and the kick start of Navi Mumbai green field airport will drive growth in domestic aviation sector. In the international arena, with falling oil prices, may have some impact on the Middle East economy, but there is hope that infrastructure spending will continue strongly in view of Expo 2020 (UAE) & FIFA 2022 (Qatar) and good business prospects are envisaged for Stadiums, Metro Rails and Healthcare related projects. The nuclear segment of the company is promising with the development-expansion of projects in existing locations like Kudankulam 3 & 4, Tarapur and Kalpakkam. Many new bridge projects in Western and Northern India, a few more special bridge packages from DFCC and High Speed Rail network are expected in India. L&T recently signed an MOU with the French firm Areva for cooperation to maximize localization for the 9000 MW Jaitapur Nuclear Plant in Maharashtra. L&T currently has a tall order backlog of more than Rs. 2.3 lakh crore, which is close to thrice its FY2015 revenue (excluding IT and finance businesses). Given the impeccable execution track record of L&T and average execution period of 24-30 months of the existing backlog, the revenue outlook remains very healthy. The management retains its guidance for an order inflow growth and revenue growth at 15 % for FY2016. It is expected that the ordering activities would shoot up once the domestic investment cycle revives and L&T is most suitably placed to capture opportunities owning to diversified presence, strong capability and healthy balance sheet. The management guides for a 100- basis point (BPS) year-on-year (Y-o-Y) margin expansion in FY2016 on the back of improvement in the performance of hydrocarbon business (worst is over) and stable margin in the infrastructure business; therefore, healthy bottom-line growth to follow too. Recently, Bain Capital bought 85.2 million shares, or a 4.95 % stake, in L&T Finance from parent firm L&T through an open market transaction. The share sale was via exchanges and was concluded at an average price of Rs.70 per share, implying a deal size of Rs. 597 crore. L&T will reduce its stake in L&T Finance to about 62.5 % following the conversion of the warrants. L&T has so far held 72.5 % in its finance subsidiary. In addition to that , L&T’s buildings & factories segment has secured an order worth Rs. 740 crore for construction of a commercial complex in Gurgaon, which is scheduled to be completed in 24 months. In water & effluent treatment business, it received a water supply order of Rs. 573 crore from the rural water supply & sanitation department, Telangana. Its power transmission & distribution segment has secured a turnkey order worth Rs. 192 crore from the Transmission Corporation of Telangana for supply, erection, testing and commissioning of a 400 kV quad moose double circuit transmission line which will run across Adilabad and Karimnagar districts of Telangana. Also, L&T’s subsidiary has received from Delhi Metro Rail Corporation for the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of ballast-less track of standard gauge. Additional orders, across businesses of L&T Construction, have also been received from various ongoing jobs. L&T is going for listing of its IT subsidiary: L&T Infotech by offering 15 % stake in the proposed IPO, which could unlock value. The IT subsidiary is growing at 20 % growth rate currently with a fairly high base and is having earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin profile of around 20 %. This along with the strong pedigree makes a case for relatively premium valuation for L&T Infotech. Moreover, the company is constantly looking for other value unlocking opportunities to fund its future growth in the core engineering business. As investment cycle in India is reversing after a long; the addressable order prospect for L&T is estimated to be above Rs. 5 lakh crore in future, considering the potential revival in the domestic investment cycle ahead. While investments in road and power transmission are going on currently, large investments in railways and water segment are expected to start soon. Nevertheless, the outlook for L&T’s three other segments (hydrocarbon, metallurgical and power) are expected to remain weak for some time.

Outlook and Valuation:
Larsen & Toubro’s (L&T) is a USD 15 billion technology, engineering, construction, projects, manufacturing and financial services conglomerate, with global operations. The company is engaged in core, high-impact sectors – infrastructure, construction, defence, hydrocarbon, heavy engineering, power, aerospace, shipbuilding, electrical & automation, mining and metallurgy. Its integrated capabilities span the entire spectrum of 'design-to-deliver', and it offers turnkey EPC solutions in its major business lines. Its track record covers products, projects and processes executed to international benchmarks. Every aspect of L&T's businesses is characterized by professionalism and high standards of corporate governance. Sustainability is embedded into its long-term strategy for growth. The Company's manufacturing footprint extends across multiple countries in addition to India. L&T has several international offices and a supply chain that extends around the globe. It has projects like Airports in India and the Middle East Metro rail systems for Riyadh, Qatar and major Indian cities. Projects in large infrastructure include bridges and highways - from Jordan to Malaysia. In Technology, L&T is contributing to key missions like the building of India's first nuclear-powered submarine, maiden missions to the moon and Mars. For Hydrocarbon projects in the Middle East, Africa, South East Asia and India, L&T is building the world's longest heated and insulated oil pipeline. Also building the world's largest coal gasifier made in India and exported to China. L&T has continuously evolved by building new skill sets and competencies to effectively benefit from emerging trends, and hence L&T focuses on Portfolio rationalization. L&T has incubated and grown service businesses like IT and finance on a wide range. It is also expanding the share of manufacturing businesses like power BTG, defence, and forgings, by creating independent companies for different businesses and listing subsidiaries, it has kept business structure simple and promoted managerial talent. Also L&T is attempting to correct capital allocation through various initiatives & focusing on improving RoE through monetization of mature assets, exiting non-core activities, and fund infusion (including listing of subsidiaries) and this will improve its consolidated RoE. L&T has invested near about Rs. 100b in setting up manufacturing businesses for defense, power BTG, forgings, which are difficult to replicate and this will position L&T as a dominant player. The Indian capex cycle is believed to be on recovery mode. The recent burst of policy measures would ease environment for capex. This will call economists to cut rates, and will give thrusts to stronger recovery of Capex and a full-fledged recovery will be seen only in FY2017. The slowdown in order inflows from the Middle East markets coupled with revival in domestic capex cycle should lead to a shift in the order inflow mix more towards the domestic markets, going forward. On the back of shift in order book towards domestic markets, there could be a uptick in execution. Accordingly, L&T could have a 16.2 % top-line CAGR over FY2015-2017E. Given that L&T is currently sitting on an order book which gives revenue visibility for over 30 months, this shift in order inflow mix should help the company in faster margin recovery, expanding its EBITDA margins by 0.32 % during FY2015-17 to 11.7 %. The company retained its guidance on both revenue and order intake growth at 15 % for FY16, while EBITDA margins are expected to rise by 100bp (ex-services business) on account of loss avoidance from the hydrocarbons business. Core E&C revenue could double over the next three years, as domestic intake in FY15 was INR943b while revenue was INR460b. The Portfolio churn’ in concession portfolio and service segments would aid value unlocking as L&T Infotech & Tech Services IPO is being expected by July 2016. On Financial side the Q1FY16 Standalone revenue of L&T grew 4 % YoY to Rs. 1,0710 crore. Its Infrastructure segment posted strong revenue growth of 16 % YoY while power segment, after many quarters of decline, grew 12 % YoY in Q1FY16. In Q1FY16, the hydrocarbons segment reported a robust 41 % jump in revenues coupled with positive 4 % EBITDA margin. L&T recorded a 21 % YoY decline in consolidated order inflows given the high base of order intake in Q1FY5. Hence, order inflows for Q1FY16 were at Rs. 26376 crore. The order backlog as of Q1FY16 stood at Rs. 2,39,000 crore, up 22 % YoY. Order inflows have perked up in FY15 (Rs 1.4tn, up 19 % YoY) and consolidated order backlog is up 28 % YoY to Rs 2.3tn. With an expected pickup in domestic projects execution management has guided for 15 % growth in consolidated order inflow & revenue for FY16. L&T is very well positioned to benefit from gradual recovery in the domestic capex cycle, given its diverse range of sectoral exposure, strong balance sheet and better cash flow generating potential in comparison to its peers, which are struggling with higher leverage, and strained cash flows. L&T is an established leader with excellent execution track record over many business cycles. And L&T remains the best proxy to investment revival in India. Hydrocarbon business should also come out of red in FY16 as the company has finished losses on low margin legacy orders. At the current market price of Rs. 1,484.95, the stock is trading at a PE of 25.91 x FY16E and 20.39 x FY17E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 57.30 in FY16E and Rs. 72.80 in FY17E. The fair value of L&T on stand-alone basis using SOTP comes at Rs. 1,880 per share, while the valuation of its investments in subsidiaries comes at Rs. 408.12 per share. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. 

SOTP Valuation :-
Business Subsidiary
Value Per Share (in  ₹ Rs.) 
L&T Core Business
1,470.00
L&T Hydrocarbons
16.00
L&T Infotech
137.00
L&T Finance*
76.12
Infra Development projects
69.00
Power Development projects
37.00
Power Equipments Venture
7.00
Shipbuilding & Container Port
23.00
Sp. Steel & Heavy Forging Venture
9.00
Other Investments
34.00
TOTAL
1,878.12
*Note: L&T holding in L&T Finance is reduced to 62.5 %.

KEY FINANCIALSFY14FY15FY16EFY17E
SALES ( Crs)56,598.8957,017.4065,529.9078,635.80
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)5,493.105,056.205,329.206,768.90
EPS ()52.9050.6057.3072.80
PE (x)30.7029.1030.2224.10
P/BV (x)4.003.703.403.10
EV/EBITDA (x)20.8018.8018.9015.20
ROE (%)12.8013.2011.7013.60
ROCE (%)9.008.007.608.90

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold LARSEN & TUBRO Ltd in my any of the portfolios.


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This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.
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Sunday, September 13, 2015

ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTERPRISES LTD: BETTER PLACED AS CONTENT PROVIDER !!!

Scrip Code: 505537 ZEEL
CMP:  Rs. 392.00; Market Cap: Rs. 37,649.58 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 421.70 / Rs. 280.80.
Total Shares: 96,04,48,720 shares; Promoters : 41,36,70,212 shares –43.07 %; Total Public holding : 54,67,78,508 shares – 56.93 %; Book Value: Rs. 26.74; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 8.53; Dividend: 225.00 %; P/E: 45.95 times; Ind. P/E: 43.16; EV/EBITDA: 25.25.
Total Debt: Rs. 2.20 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 38,197.98 Cr.

ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTERPRISES LTD: Zee Entertainment Ltd was founded in the year 1982, based in Mumbai. Company was formerly known as Zee Telefilms Limited and changed its name to Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited in January 2007. The Company came out with an IPO in 1993 offering 90,00,000 equity shares of Rs. 10 each for Rs. 20 per share raising Rs. 18.00 Cr. ZEEL announced split in its face value from Rs. 10 to Rs.1 on September 1999, later in September 2010 it announced bonus in ratio of 1:1 and on completion of 20 years of broadcasting business in May 2013, the Company announced the distribution of about Rs. 2,015 Crs by way of Bonus issue of 6 % Non-Convertible Redeemable Preference Shares of Face value of Re. 1 each. This bonus issue was in ratio of 21 non-convertible redeemable preference shares with tenure of eight years of Re. 1 each for every 1 Equity share of Re. 1 held in a company. The bonus issue was with one-fifth of the amount i.e. around Rs. 400 Cr redeemable from fourth year onwards in five equal instalments till eight year, this was issued on March 4, 2014. ZEEL, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated media and entertainment company in India. It operates in three segments: Broadcasting and Content, Education, and Film Production. The Broadcasting and Content segment develops, produces, and procures television programming and film content, and delivers through satellites, cable, and Internet. It broadcasts channels, such as Hindi general entertainment channels and regional language general entertainment channels, Bollywood channels, sports channels, English entertainment channels, alternate lifestyle channels. The company broadcasts Hindi entertainment channels - Zee TV, Zee Smile, and 9X; Hindi movies channels - Zee Cinema, Zee Premier, Zee Action, and Zee Classic; English entertainment, movies, and life style channels - Zee Studio, Zee Café, and Zee Trendz; and Sports channels - TEN Cricket, TEN Action, TEN Sports, and TEN Golf. It also broadcasts Regional language entertainment channels, including Zee Marathi, Zee Bangla, Zee Talkies, Zee Telegu, Zee Kannada, ETC Punjabi, and Zee Tamil; religious and alternate lifestyle channels comprising Zee Jagran and Zee Salaam; music channels, such as Zing and ETC Music; niche and special interest channels comprising Zee Khana Khazana; and HD channels, including Zee TV HD, Zee Cinema HD, Zee Studio HD, and TEN HD. Company earns revenues by the way of advertisement and subscription revenues and syndication. The Education segment engages in distribution of software learning products; and provides education and training in information technology. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd has approximately 959 million viewers in 169 countries worldwide. The Film Production segment produces and distributes films. The company has a library housing approximately 2,10,678 hours of television content and about 3,500 hours of movie titles. Effective March 29, 2010, Zee News Ltd. demerged its Regional General Entertainment channel business undertaking and transferred its operation to Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited. It has operations in India, the United States, Canada, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. ZEEL can be locally be compared with Balaji Telefilms Ltd, New Delhi Television Ltd, Sri Adhikari Bros Tele Network, Sun TV Network Ltd, Network 18 Media & Investment Ltd and TV18 Broadcasts Limited, Raj Television Networks Ltd, and Globally with UTV Media PLC of UK, CBS Corporation of USA, British Sky Broadcasting Group of UK, Viacom Inc of USA, Comcast Corp of USA, Direct TV USA, Discovery Communications of USA, Dish Network of USA, Dreamworks Animations SKG of USA, Time Warner Cable Inc of USA, TV Tokyo Holdings Corporation of Japan, Chubu-Nippon Broadcasting Co., Ltd of Japan, Wowow Incorporated of Japan, Twenty First Century Fox of USA, Walt Disney company of USA, News Corp of USA, NBC Universal of USA.

Investment Rationale:
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited is one of India’s leading television, media and Entertainment Company. It is amongst the largest producers and aggregators of Hindi programming in the world, with extensive library housing over 2,10,678 hours of television content. ZEE has rights to more than 3,500 movie titles from foremost studios and of iconic film stars; Zee houses the world's largest Hindi film library. Through its strong presence worldwide, Zee entertains over 67 Cr+ viewers across 169 countries. The Zee stable owns an integrated range of businesses. All of these in singularity adhere to the content to consumer value chain model of media and entertainment business. Zee is a pioneer in every aspect of content aggregation and distribution through traditional media like satellite and cable and new media like the internet, in India. Zee Entertainment Enterprise is the first listed media company in India and first to launch a Hindi General Entertainment Channel as Zee TV. Zee Entertainment Enterprise is the first listed media company in India and first to launch a Hindi General Entertainment Channel as Zee TV, Hindi Cinema Channel as Zee Cinema, a 24 hour Hindi News Channel as Zee News, 24-hour Food Channel as Zee Khana Khazana, Urdu infotainment channel as Zee Salaam. The company recently launched HD Offering include Zee TV HD, Zee Cinema HD, Zee Studio HD and Ten HD. Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited is one of the largest Indian programming content distributors with an estimated reach of more than 959 million viewers in over 169 countries including USA, Canada, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand. The Indian Media and Entertainment Industry witnessed a moderate growth in 2014. The industry grew from Rs. 91,800 Cr in 2013 to Rs. 1,02,600 Cr in 2014, registering a growth rate of 12 %. Television sector grew from Rs. 41,700 Cr in 2013 to Rs. 47,500 Cr in 2014, registering a growth of 14 % as per the FICCI-KPMG Indian Media and Entertainment Industry Report 2015. The Total advertising spend across media was Rs. 41,400 Cr in 2014 contributing to 40 % of Media & Entertainment industry revenues. In light of the continued economic growth, advertising revenues saw a growth of 14 % in 2014. On account of improving monetization due to digitization, in 2014, subscription revenues grew at annualized growth rate 16 %. Last year 2014-2015 was another landmark year for the television industry in many ways. FY15 saw the formation of the viewership measurement system by Broadcast Audience Research Council (BARC). BARC is expected to deliver superior viewership data on account of more relevant classification parameters (NCCS instead of SEC), tracking of substantially higher viewership universe of about 15 Cr Households including rural households, as well as higher quality of data monitoring through audio watermarking of channel feeds. The Indian Media & Entertainment industry is making strides in the economy, backed by rising advertising revenues and consumer payments. 61 % of all households in India are now equipped with a television making us the second largest TV viewership market after China. With digitization, subscription revenues in urban and rural areas are growing, resulting in a healthy impact on the industry. The entertainment industry is dominated by the television segment with 45 % of the market share, which is expected to reach 50 % by 2018. The Government of India has supported this sector's growth by taking various initiatives such as digitising the cable distribution sector to attract greater institutional funding, increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) limit from 74 % to 100 % in cable and DTH satellite platforms, and granting industry status to the film industry for easy access to institutional finance. The Indian Media & Entertainment industry is on an impressive growth path. According to the CII-PwC study, the revenue from advertising is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13 % and will exceed US$ 9.64 billion in 2018 from Rs US$ 5.62 billion in 2013. Internet access has surpassed the print segment as the second-largest segment contributing to the overall pie of M&E sector revenues. Television and print are expected to remain the largest contributors to the advertising pie in 2018 as well. Internet advertising will emerge as the third-largest segment, with a share of about 16 % in the total M&E advertising pie. The film segment estimated at US$ 2.02 billion in 2015 is projected to grow steadily at a CAGR of 12 % on the back of higher domestic and overseas box-office collections as well as cable and satellite rights Digital advertising is expected to lead the CAGR with 27.7 %, followed by radio with 18.1 %. Gaming and television are expected to register a CAGR of 16.2 % each, followed by growth rates of animation and VFX (15.9 %), music (13.2 %), films (11.9 %) and OOH with 9.% expected CAGR. Within TV, subscription revenues are expected to be three times more than advertising revenues, by 2018. Growth in the regional reach of print and radio shall provide opportunities to further improve the advertisement revenue. In a bid to augment its regional presence, Zee acquired a 100 % equity stake in Sarthak Entertainment Pvt Ltd, an entity which owns and operates Sarthak, a leading Odia language general entertainment channel with a 25 % viewership share. The deal is said to have been all-cash valued at Rs. 115 crore. Zee had recently launched two new channels viz. Zee Zindagi last year and &TV in current year, which would escalate the programming and administrative expenses for the company. Though the ad inventory is expected to see a linear increase, the demand from advertisers and increase in ad yields from new channels would only happen gradually and could be margin accretive in the longer term. Zee is expected to post an EBITDA margin of about 23.2 % and 25.4 % in FY16E and FY17E, respectively. Zee Entertainment currently operates advertising inventory of about 30 hours that has peaked. The coming growth would only be price led. The company has benefited from improved rating and higher than industry advertisement growth of about 18.9 % over FY12-15 to Rs. 2,660 crore. Though the corporate earnings have remained weak, but it is believed that there would be a gradual revival in the ad growth scenario, which would benefit Zee. The recently launched GEC, &TV, is utilising 22 hours inventory while the Company intends to increase utilisation in the range of the flagship channel which is about 30 hour. With the complete impact of &TV and Zee Zindagi in the coming years, it could be expected that ZEE’s ad revenue to grow at 18.0 % CAGR in FY15-17E to Rs. 3703.8 crore. By CY15 end, India alone is expected to have 21.3 Cr mobile internet users. Global mobile connections are projected to increase to almost 9,500 Cr in CY19 from around 6,900 Cr in CY14 on account of rapid growth in mobile phones, tablets and other devices. ZEE is in sync with this process of change and is geared to offer its entertainment content through ‘NOW media’ i.e., through digital tools and OTT platforms, among others. It is also adopting cuttingedge, advance formats like ‘high definition’ and ‘4K’. Ditto TV has 2 Cr plus users and nearly 50,000 hours of content, and is consistently growing. Essel Vision, the production arm, is a step in the contentinnovation direction. It creates proprietary and differentiated content across genres and formats including TV shows and feature films. ZEE Music Company is another one of the initiatives that seeks to close the loop in terms of genre offerings from ZEE. ZEE Music Company’s repertoire of projects comprises 36 Hindi movies, 15 Marathi movies, 2 Punjabi movies and 30 popular single numbers. Looking at the GDP recovery, improvement in market share of ZEE in regional and movies genres and new launches will aid ad revenue growth. Higher penetration of DTH and the digitisation process augur well for faster growth in subscription revenue over the long term. And with the rapid growth in mobile usage and internet connections and looking at the content hours and quality of ZEE, the company can retain its leadership in media space and command higher premium in valuations and is well poised to benefit from this favourable environment.

Outlook and Valuation:
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (ZEEL) is one of India’s leading television, media & entertainment companies. In a reflection of India's growing influence, domestic television channels are increasing their networks internationally. Zee Entertainment is a leading provider of entertainment content across genres in the Hindi, English & regional languages. With leading channels like Zee Marathi, Zee Bangla, Zee Telugu, Zee Kannada, Zee Tamizh and ETC Channel Punjabi within its fold, Zee Entertainment would now have an unparalleled reach across the country in the fast growing regional markets. Bollywood - The Indian Film industry is acclaimed as one of the largest film industries of the world. ZEE's Hindi movie channels, Zee Cinema, Zee Premier, Zee Action and Zee Classic maintain its objective in delivering the best of programming in the Hindi Movies Genre. During last couple of years, Digitisation activity has still remained in slow in light of the shift in the Phase III and IV digitisation deadline. In such a scenario, the revenue stream for GEC’s could get a fillip, going ahead, as and when the company shifts to RIO based deals and new channels are able to garner increasing market share. The company awaits the Supreme Court decision on the 27.5 % hike in the non-DAS areas before shifting towards the RIO related pricing. The company is striving hard to win additional India specific sports properties, which will augment subscription revenues. Zee’s mobile app Ditto TV is also gaining traction. Currently, it has 1.5 Cr subscribers of which a million are paid with an average realisation of Rs. 50 per month. It is expected to gain traction as the mobile internet continues to grow. ZEE reported a quarter of positive EBITDA from the sports business in the quarter, which was at about Rs. 1.5 crore. This is expected to reduce the yearly losses from the sports business. The sports business is lumpy in nature and varies as per the sports related properties in its kitty. The company has guided at sports losses of about Rs. 100 crore in the coming year. The number could vary depending on any additional sports property on its platform. However, going ahead, with digitisation benefits accruing, the monetisation may be easier while sports losses are expected to reduce. To strengthen its bouquet, Zee had already launched two new channels, Zindagi and &TV, for domestic viewers. With a view to further strengthening its global presence, it launched GEC, Zee Hiburan, in Indonesia, and Zee Nung, in Thailand, which is a 24/7 Bollywood movie channel. Zee World, English GEC with Indian content was launched in Africa. Zee TV launched Parwaaz, drama series that was entirely produced in UAE, which broke all viewership records in UAE among South Asians. On Financial side Zee’s cash flow from operations (CFO) increased 78 % yoy in FY15, despite muted EBITDA growth of 4 % yoy. This is primarily attributable to lower working capital, driven by stable inventory and continued improvement in receivable days. Its Revenue grew 23.4 % YoY was primarily aided by incremental ad revenues from newly launched channels and sports revenues that resulted in ad revenue growth of 25.4 % YoY to Rs. 779.9 crore. ZEE’s Subscription revenues came in at Rs. 462.5 crore. The other operating income came in at Rs. 97.4 crore, its EBITDA came in at Rs. 311.2 crore. The EBITDA was also aided by positive contribution of | 1.5 crore vs. loss expectations from the sports business. EBITDA margins came in at 23.2 % and its PAT came in at Rs. 243.8 crore due to higher operating leverage Zee Entertainment, one of the leading media conglomerates with a bouquet of 33 domestic channels, has a presence across genres ranging from general entertainment (GEC) to music, sports and regional. Zee TV, its flagship GEC, has a viewership share of 18.2 %, and has consistently remained among the top three GECs in the last two years. The company has benefited from improved rating and higher than industry advertisement growth of 18.9 % over FY12-15 to Rs. 2,660 crore. The company reported ad revenue growth of 25.4 % YoY aided by the incremental revenue flows from &TV and Zee Zindagi and improved performance of the overall portfolio. Improving ad outlook due to stable government, best play on digitisation, product innovations and net cash of Rs. 1,800 Cr are key positives in favour of ZEE. It is believed that irrespective of higher subscriber additions by DTH or cable operators, broadcasters like ZEE will be one of the safest and most attractive plays on the digitisation theme. Amongst listed players, the company is the best placed to benefit due to its huge brand and bouquet of 34 domestic excluding 9x channel closing next month and including Sarthak TV and 36 international channels. Also, it is underpinned by sturdy free cash flow, a secular growth story and stable dividend policy, ZEE is best placed to buy in media sector. At the current market price of Rs. 392.00, the stock is trading at 34.65 x FY16E and about 31.48 x FY17E. Company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 11.31 for FY16E and of Rs. 12.45 for FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.

KEY FINANCIALSFY14FY15FY16EFY17E
SALES ( Crs)4,421.704,883.655,538.056,147.24
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)892.08977.501,086.231,195.60
EPS ()9.2910.1811.3112.45
PE (x)40.4536.9233.2230.18
P/BV (x)13.2610.228.296.87
EV/EBITDA (x)25.2622.4320.4618.42
ROE (%)32.7127.6324.8022.68
ROCE (%)52.7243.8538.5135.00

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold ZEE ENTERTAINMENT Ltd in my any of the portfolios.

*Reader Friends, So grab a fresh cup of hot coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes of yours to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

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This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.
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Thursday, September 3, 2015

DLINK INDIA LTD : DIGITIZING INDIA IS CONNECTING INDIA !!!

Scrip Code: 533146 DLINKINDIA
CMP:  Rs. 162.15; Market Cap: Rs. 575.71 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 251.80 / Rs. 95.60. Total Shares: 3,55,04,850 shares; Promoters : 1,81,14,663 shares –51.02 %; Total Public holding : 1,73,90,187 shares – 39.62 %; Book Value: Rs. 37.87; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 5.73; Dividend: 35.00 %; P/E: 28.27 times; Ind. P/E: 21.65; EV/EBITDA: 17.53. Total Debt: Rs. 3.51 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 576.15 Cr.

D-LINK INDIA LTD: D-Link India Ltd was founded in the year 2008 and is based in Mumbai. D-Link (India) Limited was formerly known as Smartlink Network Systems Limited. Company is a subsidiary of D-Link Holding Mauritius Inc. D-Link (India) Limited engages in the marketing and distribution of networking products in India and SAARC countries. It primarily offers digital home, easy portal, home servers, security box, Internet protocol (IP) device integration and wireless routers, as well as carrier switches, broadband digital subscriber lines (DSL) and DSL access multiplexers, integrated access devices, cable modems, voice over IP, passive optical network, rural connective platform outdoor wireless bridges, digital home appliances, network storage, and IP surveillance and multimedia devices for customers and service providers. The company also provides metro network, access network, premises network and home entertainment focusing on the provision of backend infrastructure services to customers at various levels, such as service distribution, aggregation, and access and premise networks. The company sells its networking products to distributors, original equipment manufacturers and system integrators, as well as for the enterprise and small and medium business segments in the government, hospitability and education sectors. It also exports its products. D-LINK INDIA LTD can be locally compared Salora International Limited, Computech Intl. Ltd, Redington India Ltd, Vintron Informatics Ltd, Zenith Computers Ltd, Encore Software Ltd and globally with Emulex Corp of USA, Emcore Corp of USA, Digi International Inc of USA, Cisco Systems Inc of USA, Intel Corporation of USA, Qualcomm Inc of US, United Technologies Corp of USA, Netgear Inc of USA, Novatel Wireless Inc of USA, Netas Telekomunikasyon A.S. of Turkey, Transmode AB of Sweden, Pace Plc of London, Alpha Networks Inc of Taiwan, Hitachi Kokusai Electric Inc of South Korea, Humax Co, Ltd of South Korea, Wave Electronics Co, Ltd of South Korea, Wistron NeWeb Corporation of Taiwan, Ceragon Networks Ltd of Isreal, Inter Far East Engineering Public Company Limited of Thailand, Marco Holdings Berhad of Malaysia, Startia Inc of Japan, Gremz, Inc of Japan, Aiko Corporation of Japan

Investment Rationale:
D-Link (India) Limited was incorporated in 2008. D-Link (India) Limited is a subsidiary of D-Link Holding Mauritius Inc. D-Link India is in business of marketing and distribution of networking, broadband, digital, voice, and data communications products of its parent D-Link Corporation, Taiwan in India. D-Link Corporation, Taiwan is globally renowned for its networking products and solutions and has a presence in 67 countries with a wide range of products. D-Link India distributes switches, routers, modems, voice over Internet protocol products, surveillance equipment, print servers, Ethernet cards, and broadband equipment. India is expected to witness a data boom similar to the voice boom witnessed in 2008. The total number of internet connections is expected to reach 463 million by FY18E (as per FICCI KPMG). The national optic fibre network as proposed by the new government will facilitate the New Telecom Policy (NTP 2012) targeting 600 million broadband users by 2020. Currently, India has about 55 million fixed and mobile broadband users. The Indian networking industry is undergoing a rapid transformation with the advent of new technologies, higher bandwidth and high speed wireless connectivity. The growth in this sector is likely to be accelerated as the economy steadily moves to a higher gear in 2014-15 driven by a gradual revival in industrial production, stable agri-sector activity, steady services growth and easing inflation. With the economy poised to grow at a steady pace, Enterprises are investing towards setting up a strong networking infrastructure that can deliver reliable and efficient end-to-end solutions which eventually transforms their productivity from business operations. The roll out of 4G services and the significant government initiatives in aggressively promoting broadband usage in the country are driving the demand of networking products like routers, modems, switches and access points to storage and surveillance products across all verticals. The number of computing devices, PCs, tablets, smart phones has increased rapidly in India and networks, especially wifi networks, need to be deployed to share information and resources across users and devices. Indian users are upgrading their networks to take advantage of complex applications, advanced communication capabilities and rich multimedia content. Indian users need the convenience and flexibility of operating their various devices in an increasingly mobile or wireless manner. Similarly, market demand for television connectivity products has increased as users seek to connect their televisions to internet and for entertainment content. These developments augurs well for D-Link India, and with the networking industry in an expansion mode, the company looks forward to sound long term growth prospects. D-link supplies complete range of switching solutions including switches, L3/L2 managed web-smart and un-managed switches. D-Link is the market leader in port shipment of switches with market share of 30 %. The demand for switches are driven by bandwidth intensive applications like streaming video, VoIP and high-end multimedia and the rising demand for gigabit switches are driven from large enterprises and service providers and D-Link carters to all. D-Link’s Product portfolio includes business class access points, unified switching solutions and long distance wireless systems. D-Link is the market leader by volumes in WLAN category with 40 % market size. Expansion of the smart phone market has helped D-Link to profitably position its products like mydlink, mobile companion and 3G in a leading space. D-Link also offers a wide range of IP-based surveillance cameras with wired and wireless options, including stand-alone network cameras, pan tilt zoom cameras, dome cameras, box cameras and outdoor cameras. This business gets orders from all relevant sectors like consumer, SMB/SME and enterprise. D-Link also handles cabling requirements of large enterprises and SMEs/SMBs across sectors. In healthcare, the focus is on high data transmission in ICU and operation theatres, while it provides complete platform of infrastructure systems and fibre connectivity for data centres. For enterprises, it offers exhaustive solution for physically distributed network and plan for flexible cabling. D-Link has recently acquired TeamF1 Networks, a provider of embedded software engineering with expertise in networking and security, in a share swap deal of 5.5m shares were issued at a price of Rs. 30 each, resulting in goodwill on acquisition of Rs. 15.35 Crs. TeamF1 provides networking and security solutions for key infrastructure components of communication and industrial equipment’s (both wired and wireless). Its products have been planted in embedded systems by scores of OEM customers ranging from big corporates to start-up companies. This acquisition will not only foment D-Link's technological and R&D capabilities but also spur in-house customization and development of new localized products. To strengthen its reach in industrial networking segment, D-Link has recently tied up with MOXA, a well-recognized player in industrial networking, computation and automation and MOXA has presence in over 70 countries. This alliance is aimed towards providing comprehensive industrial networking solution with switching, IP surveillance & wireless products as part of its offering. This association will help D-Link to offer reliable network solution for industrial grade networking technology catering to wide industrial segments like power, factory automation, surveillance projects, oil & gas, marine and telecom carriers. With the rollout of 4G and its enabled products will help D-Link to leverage its position in SOHO/SMB segment. Its latest product line from Connected Home Solution comprises of Wi Fi smart plug, motion sensor, audio extender and apps. It has also unveiled ‘D-LINK Connect Mobile App’ for its channel partners and retailers across the country. This app provides instant update on new product introductions, details on select SKUs with specification videos, news, events etc. There is a good demand for D-Link's portable routers have got a thrust from widespread adoption of 4G LTE technology in the consumer segment. Some other new products introduced last fiscal include a baby camera and 11AC product line up with cloud services which helps in stream media, share files and control network from any PC or mobile device remotely. Also D-Link Corporation recently signed a non-binding MOU with the Telegana government to set up its global R&D centre, and expands its Hyderabad office and build a network training centre in Indian state of Telegana with an investment of over Rs. 350 Crs. D-Link (India) continues to rely heavily on wares imported from D-Link Corporation and its subsidiaries, associates. To maintain its technological edge D-Link Corporation continues to rack up R&D spending which grew 18 % in the year ending 2014 and constituted 3.7 % of net operating revenues. As a result, it has been awarded copyrights and patents on several technological platforms including application specific integrated circuit (asic) computer chips, hardware technology designs, software applications and other intellectual properties.

Outlook and Valuation:

D-Link (India) Limited is a part of D-Link Corporation and is one of the largest networking company in India. The Company is engaged in Marketing and Distribution of Networking products in India as well as SAARC Countries. D-Link Holding Mauritius Inc., which is 100 % subsidiary of D-Link Corporation, is holding 60.37 % in D-Link (India) Ltd. D-Link (India) Limited is a key market player with a nationwide reach, robust product portfolio and superior services in India. The Company is firmly committed towards delivering high quality, efficiency and reliability to Networking products, solutions and services. Its product portfolio consists of end to end networking products, which includes 3G/4G, broadband, IP surveillance, network security, network storage, switching, routing and wireless LAN. D-Link is a leading player in networking products for the enterprise segment and is well placed to grab emerging opportunities in education, BFSI, manufacturing and customer premise equipment industry. D-Link's entire range of high end copper and fiber products finds applications in high end applications like data centres and server farms. With more and more people availing internet connections, the increase in popularity and usage of mobile devices like laptops, smart-phones and gaming consoles has also resulted in an increased demand for networking products in the consumer space in India. India adds more than 1.5 Cr wireless subscribers every month and is the second-largest market after China for wireless services. The numbers of wireless subscribers has increased from 26 crore at the end of FY08 to 90 crore at the end of FY14 which reflects a CAGR of 23 % while wired broadband penetration has increased from 0.4 crore at the end of FY08 to 1.5 crore at the end of FY14 at a CAGR of 25 %. In addition to these there are currently 4.6 crore users accessing broadband internet through mobile devices i.e. smart-phones and dongles. Robust growth in wireless as well as broadband subscribers is pushing the demand for PCs, tablets, smart phones and consequently for networking, especially, Wi-Fi networks. The emergence of an affluent middle class is triggering the demand for mobile and internet segments. A young and growing population is aiding this trend with their demand for new age technology, especially the demand for smart phones. This trend is expected to continue and will be further fuelled with an increase in 3G/4G subscribers and broadband users, thus, creating further demand for networking products from individual users. Enterprises have been investing towards setting up a strong networking infrastructure that can deliver reliable and efficient end-to-end solutions to aid in their business operations. The roll out of 3G services and the significant government initiatives in aggressively promoting broadband usage in the country are driving the demand of networking products like routers, switches and access points to storage and surveillance products across all verticals. The fast growth in networking infrastructure is evident across a string of verticals such as telecom, retail, aviation, hospitality, government, manufacturing and education which are increasingly deploying sophisticated networking infrastructure. D-Link being a market leader in providing networking and IT products and solutions naturally benefits from any increased spending in networking infrastructure. In India, D-Link has sustained its growth momentum in various categories. In the switches segment, D-Link’s market share continues to grow and has reached the leadership position at nearly 37 % in FY14 against the backdrop of a virtually flat market. In the routers segment, D-Link ranked second with a 36.6 % market share in FY15. In network switches it holds market share of 30 % and in the commercial routers, D-Link retained its Numero Uno position with 40 % of the market and commands pricing power, while in the emerging domain of IP surveillance, D-Link was at 4th place in FY15. GOI's landmark initiatives of digitalizing India and erecting dozens of smart cities would further galvanize the IT networking industry. Lifted by firm backing of its parent D-Link Corporation, D-Link (India) would continue to roll out highly sophisticated products in India. GOI's Digital India project envisages creation of high speed internet at gram panchayat level, on demand availability of public services and digital empowerment of citizens. It plans to set up necessary infrastructure for digital identity, financial inclusion and availability of common service centers. GOI has also laid out policy framework for setting up 100 smart cities in next five years. Despite some cooling, its revenues are expected to grow by 24 % to 25 % over the next two years. D-Link has wonderful top line growth; its revenues have grown by 5 times in last five years with average yearly addition of Rs. 134 Crs in last three years. D-Link’s Foray in high end enterprise solutions with recent tie ups with MOXA and GajShield could push its margins higher. D-Link's asset light model manifests in its overwhelming asset turnover ratios, its fixed asset and total asset turnover ratios stood at 32 % and 5.3 % last fiscal respectively. Despite awful net margins, its ability to churn out sales on a low base helps push its return on capital ratios in top quartile and its ROE stood at 18.2 % last fiscal. On Financial side, D-Link in Q4 FY15, reported a jump in its Net profit jumps to Rs. 5.30 Cr an increase of 65.91 % against Rs. 3.2 Cr in the corresponding quarter of previous year. The company’s net sales registered 29.91 % increase in Q4 FY15 and stood at Rs. 172.89 Cr from Rs. 133.08 Cr over the corresponding quarter of previous year. During the quarter, it reported its operating profit at Rs. 8.87 Cr as against Rs. 5.99 Cr in the corresponding period of the previous year. For the end of FY15, the company registered a growth of 28 % in Net sales to Rs. 625.32 Cr from Rs. 487.58 Cr for the end of FY14. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 24 % and 21 % over 2014 to 2017E respectively. At the current market price of Rs. 162.15, the stock is trading at 22.24 x FY16E and about 17.07 x FY17E. Company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 7.29 for FY16E and of Rs. 9.49 for FY17E. Despite sobering growth, D-Link's earning is projected to grow by some 26 % (annual average) over the next two years. The company will proficienctly remain virtually debt free – funded the TeamF1’s purchase consideration of Rs 16.50 crs through equity. Volatility in forex rates though pose marginal risks for it imports finished goods worth over 50 % of sales. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.

KEY FINANCIALSFY14FY15FY16EFY17E
SALES ( Crs)487.58625.32781.45968.78
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)13.5721.3225.8833.70
EPS ()4.256.007.299.49
PE (x)6.4027.4027.0020.70
P/BV (x)0.904.304.403.70
EV/EBITDA (x)3.8016.9016.9013.10
ROE (%)14.4018.2017.8019.50
ROCE (%)14.8018.0017.6019.50

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold DLINK Ltd in my investment portfolios.

*Reader Friends, So grab a fresh cup of hot coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes of yours to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.
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READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

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