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Sunday, October 23, 2016

VETO SWITCHGEARS AND CABLES LTD : VETO POWER !!



Scrip Code: 539331 VETO
CMP:  Rs. 156.45; Market Cap: Rs. 286.72 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 161.40 / Rs. 80.60
Total Shares: 1,83,27,100 shares; Promoters: 1,06,64,874 shares – 58.19 %; Total Public holding : 76,62,226 shares – 41.81 %; Book Value: Rs. 46.49; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 7.14; Dividend: 20.00 % ; P/E: 16.96 times; Ind. P/E: 19.94; EV/EBITDA: 11.90 times. Total Debt: Rs. 42.27 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 326.87 Cr.
   
VETO SWITCHGEAR AND CABLES LTD: The Company was incorporated on 2007. Veto Switch Gears And Cables Limited is an India-based company, which is engaged in the manufacturing of wires and cables, as well as electrical accessories. The Company also deals in various types of light emitting diode (LED) lighting, compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) and fans. The Company's products are focused on households and business groups. Its products include Copper, Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin and Aluminum. It supplies products under the brands, VETO and VIMAL POWER. It is also engaged in exporting electrical accessories and goods. The Company's products are marketed in both domestic and international markets. The Company has relationships with approximately 2,000 dealers. The Company has its manufacturing plant at Haridwar. Veto Electricals Private Limited (VEPL) is the subsidiary of the Company. Company is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of wires & cables and electrical accessories in India. Veto Switchgears product portfolio ranges from industrial cables, stand cables to telephone & co-axial wires, from general switches to modular switches, from ceiling fans to rechargeable fans, compact fluorescent lamps and other electrical accessories. The company came with an IPO on December 3, 2012 with an offer of 50,00,000 equity shares of Rs. 10 each at Rs. 50 per share raising Rs. 25 Cr. The shares got listed on NSE EMERGE on December 13, 2012 at Rs. 58 per share. The purpose of the issue was to modernization of existing facility at Hardwar, Uttarakhand to finance incremental long term working capital requirement, to enhance company’s brand through advertising and other activites, general coporate purposes and to meet issue expenses. The company got migrated on NSE main board on April 29, 2015 and got listed on BSE on September 9, 2015. The company gave bonus in September 2013 in ratio of 1:10, and has not given any Split in face value of its shares. VETO SWITCHGEARS LTD is locally compared with Sterile Technologies Ltd, KEI Industries Ltd, Polycab Cables, Havells India Ltd, Finolex Cables Ltd, Rishabhdev Technologies, Aksh Optifibre Ltd, Precision Wires Ltd, Ram Ratan Wires Ltd, Torrent Cables Ltd, B C Power Control, Nicco Corp Ltd, G R Cables Ltd, Birla Cable Ltd, Delton Cables Ltd and globally compared with General Cable Corporation of USA, Belden Inc of USA, Insteel Industries Inc of USA, Encore Wire Corporation of USA, Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corp of USA, Optical cable Corporation of USA, Southwire of USA, Prysmian Group of Italy, Nexans of France, Sumitomo Electric Industries of Japan, Furukawa Electric of Japan, Fujikura of Japan, LS Cable & Systems of South Korea, Walsin Lihwa of Taiwan, Far East Cable of China, Grupo Condumex of Mexico, Qingdao Hanhe Cable of China.

Investment Rationale:
Veto Switchgear & cables Ltd, established in 2007, is manufacturer of Wires & Cables and Electrical Accessories. The company is promoted by Gurnani group. It produces all type and ranges of Electrical Accessories. It uses latest production technology and also produces latest products as per market demand. Its products are with the brand name "VETO" and "VIMAL POWER" India's first ISI Mark Electrical Accessories. It is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of Wires & Cables , Electrical Accessories , Industrial Cables , Fans , CFL Lamps , Pumps , Modular Switches , LED lights , Immersion Heater , MCB and distribution boards. The electronics market of India is one of the largest in the world and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.4 % during 2012-2020. Separately, forecasts say that the electric wire and cable market in India is to grow at a CAGR of 16.18 % over the period 2015-19 as power cables led the revenues of the wires and cables market with more than 50 % contribution to the total market in fiscal year 2014. The Indian wire and cable industry is growing satisfactorily and getting more and more consolidated and becoming largely organized now. The power cable led the industry from front contributing almost 50 % of the industry's emphasis on laying comprehensive power distribution and transmission network in the country. The increasing digitalization has of course catapulted the demand even more. Construction is also one of the core sectors of Indian economy and future of this industry is also based on commodity prices. Construction cables and wire sector anticipated to see steep growth in demands in coming days owing to huge government’s, spending in infrastructure, smart cities, real estate boom, and housing explosion. Increase in Urban Population and Per-Capita Income growing at a steady rate is beneficial for the sectors. The demand of manufacturing of wires & cables and electrical accessories & other allied products in India is also hence likely to increase. De-licensing and removal of tariffs for the industry, low entry barriers, and increased demand for housing & increased growth in the emerging markets are basic growth drivers of the market. At more than 7 % rate of annual GDP growth, India is already amongst the fastest growing economy in the world. Government priority projects such as Housing for All, Smart Cities, Interlinking of rivers, AMRUT, Swacch Bharat, development of inland water ways for transportation, etc. are various initiatives which will help companies like VETO. Power sector reforms being expected to be a top priority for government is playing out well and government will increasingly turn its attention to reforming the power distribution segment and boosting India's energy independence. The year 2015 started off on a good note for the LED industry in India. PM's initiative to launch Notional programme for LED based Home & street lightning as well as a scheme for LED distribution under the domestic Efficient Lighting program is highly valued for the growth of India. The studies showed LEDs were 25 % more efficient than CFL, 23 % more efficient than tube lights and 80 % more efficient than incandescent lamps. The Prime Minister's initiative has accelerated the adoption of LED's in several sectors across the country through the creation of several new policies and financial subsidies undertaken by the Ministry of power, BEE and various state municipalities. This has helped propel the industry to grow five folds in five year from its current size of Rs. 4000 crores according to Electric Lamp and Component Manufacturers Association (ELCOMA). Veto Switchgears enjoys good market share of electrical accessories in Northern region especially in Rajasthan and has pan India market. Veto is a dominant player in Rajasthan with 12-13 % market share. Currently Veto gets 80 % of its revenues from Rajasthan, 10 % from Gujarat and balance 10 % from other states. For Rajasthan and Gujarat the company mainly follows Dealer’s Retailer Model for sales which provide higher margins and direct control over the inventory. The industry usually follows Distributor’s Dealer’s Retailer model which has lower margins but gives scalability. Hence Veto has also decided to expand through distributors in various parts of the country to increase the reach. In next three years, the company is targeting 50 % of sales from outside Rajasthan regions. This strategy would provide higher scalability to the company due to lower requirement of funds and would gradually increase the return ratios of the company. Looking at the growth of the Indian market, company is targeting Rs. 270 to Rs. 280 Crores of Revenue this fiscal & Rs. 1000 Crores in the next five years. Further, Veto has installed another manufacturing unit at Mahindra SEZ, Where the construction and erection of the plant for machinery has already been completed which is mainly for wires and cables only and is 100% export oriented unit. Company has set revenue target Rs. 30 Crores from this unit in the current year itself major earning coming from the state of Rajasthan. Veto’s wire rate is equal to Havells & Anchor in this state. Infact, wire sale is more than Anchor in Rajasthan. Veto’s focus this year is to widen and cover more and more states of India. The company has broadened its network and distribution spaces and has dealer network of 2,500 across India compared to 2,314 dealers last year. Veto also had major success in some of the biggest cities of UAE & is working towards making “Veto” a globally established brand. Its products are marketed in both domestic and international markets. Recently Veto launched Cooler Kit (Fan) in the market after the previous launches of Fans, CFL Bulbs and LED. It is planning to launch Geyser in next couple of months. More products under the same brand will enable Veto to capture a larger share of spending by consumers and give retailers a bigger bouquet to offer to their customers. Veto plans to enhance its capacity utilization from its two plants at Haridwar and Vasai going forward. Apart from domestic business of Veto, the group has an associate company in Dubai, JMTC FZCO which is trading electrical goods. Veto formed a 100 % subsidiary in Dubai on Oct 2015, via Dubai Veto Overseas and in 6 months its sale crossed Rs. 64 crores and PAT crossed Rs. 5.4 crores as there is no tax in Dubai and EPS for this company stood at Rs. 2.98. Dubai Veto Overseas took over the business of JMTC FZCO gradually without diluting equity. Apart from this, another subsidiary of the domestic business Veto Electricals Pvt Ltd has to commence the business from June 2016 onwards, by exporting electrical goods from its new plant in Mahindra SEZ, in Jaipur. Due to this consolidation, there could be a notable jump in Revenues and PAT from FY17 onwards. The management has also guided that the domestic business is likely grow at a CAGR of 20 % due to expansion of territories and products. Looking at all the developments the overall business could grow at a CAGR of 52 % (FY16E-FY19E) post consolidation of Dubai based promoter group company and business from SEZ (Jaipur). Strong established brand presence in Rajasthan. Driving growth through innovation and marketing India’s ever growing requirements of energy and capacity addition planned by the Government through various initiatives, gives substantial opportunity for increasing demand for wires & cables and electrical accessories, and Decrease in copper prices, Housing projects of Government and semi-government agencies. Low cost end-to-end business model being adopted by existing or new competitors. Adoption of new strategies by new or Existing players in the market augurs well for Veto Switch gears and cables ltd. VETO on the verge being one of the leader in the industry has very strong footing in the sector and has strong cash flow which thrusts the growth for the company, and strong financials with sustained cashflow makes it attractive for long term investment.

Outlook and Valuation:
Veto Switchgear Limited (Veto) started its operations as small retail shop in Jaipur in 1968 and gradually it became the leading dealer in the market. Later the promoted felt the need to backward integrate and hence set up a manufacturing plant for Wire and Electrical accessories in Jaipur, Rajasthan in 1975 and over the years it has become one of the largest players in Rajasthan with market share of 12-13 %. The company has strong network of more than 2500 dealers across India compared to 2,314 dealers in Q3FY16. However, company plans to expand its dealer network across India and increase its network count to 5,000 in next 2-3 years. Apart from Rajasthan, Veto has decent presence in Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand, J&K, Jharkhand, MP, Assam, Kerala are some other states where it has made some inroads. The management has guided at bringing the proportion of Rajasthan to 50 % in the next 2-3 years by expanding Veto’s presence across, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, UP, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, NCR, MP, J&K and other unrepresented areas. Company is also in the manufacturing of electrical accessories, wires and cables at manufacturing facilities in Haridwar and Vasai Mumbai. Company also deals in electrical accessories like switch socket, MCB, bell and all electrical accessories which is used for household purposes and manufacturing wires and cables. Cable starts from 0.75 mm to 10 mm. Veto is looking to expand its business across India and follow the industry standard by appointing distributors across India. This will help Veto increase the scale of the business and lower the working capital requirement. Veto plans to appoint 100 distributors across India in the next two years from the current 6. This will help to reduce its working capital cycle going forward. Currently Veto has a working capital cycle of six months, which is high compared to Crompton Greaves which has of three months, V-Guard has two months and Havells has one month. Further, consolidating its Dubai subsidiary numbers could also lead to lower working capital cycle as that subsidiary works on tighter working capital cycle. The group has Wire and Electrical accessories business in different companies and apart from India it has operations in Dubai as well. In India the holding company of Veto Switchgear has an old manufacturing plant at Jaipur which manufactures Wire and Electrical accessories and in-turn supply to Dubai Company. The company has revenues of Rs. 30 cr. This plant has become inefficient and group set up new plant in listed company Veto Switchgear at Mahindra SEZ, Jaipur with an investment of Rs. 11 cr. The production from this plant has commenced from April 2016 and sales to Dubai Company will shift to this plant. The plant is likely to do sales of Rs 40 Cr in FY17 which will add up in company’s revenue. Also, the group has an associate company in Dubai - JMTC which has revenues of Rs. 350 Cr and EBITDA of Rs. 60 cr. JMTC market electrical accessories, wire and appliances in Middle East and African market. Veto Switchgear has floated 100 % subsidiary in Dubai to partial transfer the business of associate company. It commenced operations from 2HFY16 and likely to do around Rs. 20 Cr of sales in 2HFY16 and Rs 80 cr in FY17E. However, the company does all above restructuring, the company will need lot of funds or Bank borrowing as working capital cycle both in India and in Dubai is very high. In India the Working capital cycle is 6 months and in Dubai it is 7.5 months. For example, with an investment of Rs. 25 Cr in 100 % subsidiary in Dubai, the company will be able to do revenues of Rs. 40 Cr. Company is not looking to dilute equity. Veto expects to benefit from introduction of GST as unorganized sector will lose its benefit. Further the boost to affordable housing provided by the Govt will also likely result in better sales growth for Veto over the medium term. Q4 is generally a good quarter for Veto in domestic market. Veto could also distribute 20 % to 25 % of its PAT by way of dividend it has already paid out 5 % interim dividend in 28th Jan 2016. Dividend could also increase the attractiveness of the stock. Veto's FY 15-16 sale in India include sale of Rs. 112 crores constituting Rs. 50 crores wires and cables, Rs. 62 crores from electrical accessories. Manufacturing sale of the company is Rs. 37.5 crores and trading sale includes sale of LED fan and CFL. LED is Rs. 7.5 crores, fan is Rs. 3.5 crores and CFL is Rs. 13.5 crores. Company enjoys advantage with respect to receivable days over its peers. In the Electrical business in India receivable days is normally 120 days for all; however for the company it is reduced to 86 days just because of Dubai operation where it is only 30 days. The company has grown at a CAGR of 12.4 % between FY12-15 and EBITDA has grown 11 % during the same period. The base business of the company is expected to grow at CAGR of 20 % for next 2-3 years based on outside Rajasthan expansion. The company has high working capital cycle (which is expected to improve on back of addition of distribution level). Due to this, it has negative cash flow from operations in last 2 out of 4 years. In FY15 the operating cash flow was positive as sales growth was nominal. In FY16 and FY17 the operating cash flow is again likely to be negative on account of addition of international operations which has high working capital cycle. The group is trying to consolidate its business in listed company which may face hurdle on account of ownership structure of three brothers in Indian and Dubai operation. The group is consolidating the business. Considering high working capital cycle and lower ROCE, VETO will not be able to get multiple like V-Guard or Bajaj Electrical. However, it can still get multiple of 12x easily and success in the planned strategy would further re-rate the stock. With positive outlook for the sector in the medium to long term, Veto Switchgear could post 52 % CAGR of sales growth for FY15-FY19E going by the expectations of the management, the recent restructuring of Dubai business and contribution from its new Jaipur SEZ subsidiary. Considering its expected growth in revenue, margin expansion and healthy return ratios going forward, this stock can perform better. At the current market price of Rs. 156.45, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.53 x FY17E and 12.28 x FY18E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 10.07 in FY17E and Rs. 12.73 in FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.

KEY FINANCIALSFY15FY16FY17EFY18E
SALES ( Crs) 97.03176.59270.05328.24
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)7.1616.6718.4523.34
EPS () 3.917.1410.0712.73
PE (x)17.6312.559.636.69
P/BV (x)1.732.131.901.65
EV/EBITDA (x)10.4412.187.836.44
ROE (%) 19.71 21.7120.9022.13
ROCE (%)30.8822.0525.3826.46

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This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible. 


As a Disclosures I Confirm that : 
I confirm that I shall not deal or trade in securities mentioned in this article within thirty days before and five days after the publication of this article. I also confirm that I will not deal or trade directly or indirectly in securities mentioned in this article in a manner contrary to the ideas put forth in the article. I have not received any financial compensation for writing this article.
 

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Thursday, October 13, 2016

SOLAR INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD: READY TO EXPLODE !!!

Scrip Code: 532725 SOLARINDS
CMP:  Rs. 681.10; Market Cap: Rs. 6,163.28 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 759.45 / Rs. 567.06
Total Shares: 1,80,98,011 shares; Promoters : 1,32,08,207 shares – 72.98 %; Total Public holding : 48,89,804 shares – 27.02 %; Book Value: Rs. 95.87; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 18.99; Dividend: 225.00 % ; P/E: 35.70 times; Ind. P/E: 53.69; EV/EBITDA: 20.09 times. Total Debt: Rs. 400.34 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 6,526.58 Cr.
   
SOLAR INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD: The Company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Nagpur, Maharashtra, India. The company was earlier known as Solar Explosives Limited and changed its name to Solar Industries India Ltd in 2009. Solar Industries India Limited is an explosives manufacturing company. The Company manufactures, supplies and exports industrial explosives and initiating systems. It manufactures various explosives products, such as Slurry and emulsion base explosives, bulk explosives, detonators, pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) and accessories. The Company's products include Large Dia slurry Explosives, Small Dia Emulsion, Small Dia Slurry Explosives, Solar Detonators, Supreme Detonators, Supreme Electric Detonators, Economic Sod, Eco Det, Cord Relay, Cast Booster and Detonating Fuse. Its products are used across mining and infrastructure sectors. It also offers high melting explosive (HMX) and HMX Compounded products to the defense sector. The Company has 25 manufacturing plants eight states in India and three in overseas locations. The Company offers its products to 42 countries across the globe. The Company has manufacturing facilities at Zambia, Nigeria and Turkey. The company came with an IPO in 1980 with an offer of 4,41,000 equity shares of Rs. 10 each at par. The company has not declared any bonus. Company has declared Split in face value of its shares from Face value of Rs. 10 to Rs. 2.00 on May 16, 2016. SOLAR INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD is locally compared with Premier Explosive Ltd, Indo Gulf Industries, GOCL Corp Ltd, Hardcastle & Waud Manufacturing Co Ltd, UPL Ltd, CDET Explosive Industries Private Ltd, Salvo Explosive & Chemicals Pvt Ltd, Thangavel Match Ind, Vetrivel Explosives Pvt Ltd, Dai-Ichi Karkaria Ltd globally compared with Saudi Explosive manufacturer of UAE, African Explosives (Tanzania) Ltd of Tanzania, Austin Powder Company of USA, Maxam Brasilia LTDA of Brazil, Maxam Corporation of Spain, African Explosives (Ghana) Ltd of Ghana, Davey Bickford of France, Elviemak Sa of Greece, European Federation of Explosives Engineers of UK, Fabchem China Ltd of china, Biafo Industries Ltd of Pakistan, Hyflux Ltd of Singapore.

Investment Rationale:  
Solar Industries India Ltd (SIIL) founded in 1995, is one of the largest comprehensive explosives & initiating devices manufacturing company in India. Solar Industries India Limited has grown to become India’s largest manufacturer of Industrial explosives and explosives initiating systems and spreading its presence to global markets with manufacturing plant at Zambia, Nigeria and Turkey. Solar Industries India Ltd manufacturing facilities span in 19 Locations across India with 3 manufacturing units in Overseas with distributors network in more than 40 countries. The company offers high quality and services that are backed by stringent safety standards, a robust infrastructure companies including the recognized names like Coal India Ltd, Singareni Collieries company Ltd, Vedenta, Tata, Sasan Power, L&T, and many more. Solar Industries products includes Cartridge explosives, Detonators, Detonating cord, Cast booster, Multi-layer Shock Tubes, Underground Bulk, Explosives for military Application, Pyros, Propellants, Ammunitions. Industrial explosives comprises of cartridge explosives, bulk explosives, ANFO based explosives, which includes boosters and PETN as well as accessories for explosives such as safety fuses, detonating fuses and detonators. The global explosives market is largely driven by bulk explosives. The mining industry is the largest consumer of industrial explosives, with coal mining demand dominating over others, due to increasing demand for coal. Other segments that utilises explosives include limestone and metal mines besides infrastructure segments like roads, dams, canals and tunnels. Despite India’s huge reserves of various natural minerals, the share of the mining and quarrying sector as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has declined from 2.8 % in FY 2010-11 to 2.1% in FY 2013-14 (Provisional Estimates). This decline came against the backdrop of various judicial pronouncements and the Justice Shah Commission Report, which led to the suspension of several mining leases or closure of mines. The revival of the mining sector is now linked to providing a level playing field between domestic and foreign investors. The proposal is aimed not only at remedying the problems in the sector but also at creating an enabling environment based on sound principles of transparency and efficiency. Once the mining sector is back on track, the explosives industry is set to witness a new phase of growth. Also the Government has set an excavation target of 1.35 Billion Tonnes of coal by FY 2020. According to the plans firmed up by Coal India along with the Union Coal Ministry, total output envisaged for Coal India’s subsidiaries is about 900 Million Tonnes and other proposed New Projects for is about 100 Million Tonnes. Its plans for each of the subsidiaries are in place, though, and it also envisages opening up 70-100 mines to achieve the FY 2020 target. Iron Ore mining industry is currently facing some hurdles in securing approvals to restart mines, especially in the three states of Odisha, Karnataka and Goa. Nevertheless, once these mines begin production, iron ore output is set to grow at a robust pace of 10 % during FY 2015. Against an output of 140 Million Tonnes in FY 2014, domestic production is set to reach 155 Million Tonnes in FY 2015. Some positive developments that are imminent include the renewal of leases for mines in Goa, the formation of a new government in Jharkhand, issuance of clearances and permits in Odisha and revival of mines in Karnataka. India was the world’s largest arms importer, largely due to lack of domestically produced arms. To reduce significant outflows of valuable foreign currency as well as to promote domestic growth of the industry, the Government presented the Defence Procurement Policy in FY 2013, under which all Government procurements would need to have a minimum 30 % of such purchases with indigenous content. This has opened up new business opportunities for the explosives sector in India. Budget 2015-16 has also provided an outlay of Rs. 2,46,727 Cr for defence. The Government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative, seeking to promote self-reliance, indigenisation, technology upgradation and achieving economies of scale and developing capabilities for exports in the defence sector, will also open up a large window of opportunity for the explosives sector. These developments will cumulatively facilitate the emergence of a more efficient and productive coal sector. This will, in turn, trigger greater demand for the explosives which is good for this industry. SOLAR INDUSTRIES LTD commands a dominant volume market share of 25 % among more than 40 players in 1 mt Indian explosive market in which large 6 player’s accounts for 75 % market share and tedious licencing procedures act as high entry barriers. Explosives industry clocked a combined volume CAGR bulk & cartridge explosives of 9 % while Solar Industries Ltd’s combined volume CAGR bulk & cartridge explosives was 16 % over FY09-FY16. Solar Industries will continue to outperform the industry, given the various triggers in domestic and overseas markets. Unlike capital goods, explosives are industrial consumables and to a large extent immune to the vagaries of intense cyclicality faced by its main user industry i.e. mining. This can be witnessed from the fact that SIL’s combined volume CAGR for bulk and cartridge explosives has been 16 % over FY09-FY16 as against coal production CAGR of 3.8 %, iron ore production CAGR of -5.8 %, and lignite/limestone production CAGR of 2.9 % /4.0 %, respectively, over the same period. SIL is well placed with its recent addition in licensed capacities due strategic acquisitions of M/s Blastec (India) Private Ltd & M/s Emul Tek Private Ltd. The current licensed capacity in this segment stands at 3, 00,000 MT. As per the management, volumes from tender business are also expected to improve significantly, with increased focus of government on Coal India and Singareni Collieries to increase their mining volumes. SIL’s newly commissioned facility at kothagudam (Andhra Pradesh) along with two new facilities at Barbil (Odisha) & Kota (Rajasthan) will also contribute significantly to the volume growth. SIL has achieved superior volume growth compared to the industry. The same trend is expected to continue and SIL’s bulk volumes can grow at a CAGR of 24 % to 2,82,014 MT in FY16-18E, Cartridge volumes are expected to grow at 12 % CAGR over FY16-18E. With the improvement in the realisations is mostly due to increase in exports as cartridge fetches higher realisations in the export market. As per management, both cartridge volumes and realisations are expected to improve from here, on account of higher demand from domestic private infrastructure players, private miners and continued up-tick in exports. SIL has witnessed improved demand from the defence segment from Q4FY16. The current order book of the company in this segment is now Rs. 80 crore. The same is executable by H1FY18E. SIL had already executed Capex of Rs. 200 crore in this segment for setting up a production capacity of 50 tonne per annum (TPA) of HMX and 10,000 propellants. The same was utilised to set up a capacity of 2500 propellant and 50 TPA of HMX. Going ahead, the company has capex plans of Rs. 50 crore in FY17E and FY18E to increase the propellant capacity from 2,500 units to 10,000 units and HMX capacity from 50 TPA to 100 TPA. The integrated pinaka rocket launcher facility is likely to come up in the next four or five months. The management is confident of winning orders in this segment as it believes that the upcoming facility addresses an area where there are capacity constraints, especially the ordnance factory board (OFB) end. SIL is also planning to foray into manufacturing of bi-modular-charge systems (BMCS) for artillery guns. BMCS is a crucial component required to propel the shell out of the barrel, this was so far imported, mainly from France. In last one year around 10 lakh modules were imported. BMCS can increase the rate of firing, especially for a gun like Bofors. Ordnance Factory Board's (OFB) plans to have a dedicated factory for making BMCS Could not take off after being conceived 15 years ago. The government now plans to open this area to private players. SIL has already applied for necessary licenses in this segment and is waiting for the approval. SOLAR INDUSTRIES LTD being one of the leaders in the industry has very strong footing and has strong cash flow which thrusts the growth for the company, and strong financials with sustained cash flow makes it attractive for long term investment.

Outlook and Valuation: 
Solar Industries India (SIL) is the largest manufacturer of industrial explosives and explosive initiating systems in India. The Nagpur-based company has licensed capacity of 4,02,000 tn with its plants across the country. The company’s offerings include bulk and packaged (cartridge) explosives, apart from a wide array of initiating systems comprising detonators, detonating fuses and cast boosters. SIL currently owns and operates the world’s largest single-location manufacturing capacity for cartridge explosives besides India’s largest manufacturing capacity for bulk explosives. Over the past three decades, SIL has gradually expanded its product offerings from cartridge to bulk explosives and from detonators to detonating cord and cast boosters. The recent addition to its vast bouquet of products were multi-layer shock tubes, underground bulk explosives, explosives for military application, pyrotechnics, propellants and ammunition developed through intensified efforts of state-of-the-art R&D centre. Hence, SIL has significantly widened its bouquet of products and is today a one-stop-shop for industrial explosives. Currently, SIL has 25 manufacturing facilities, spanning 10 states across India and 3 overseas units - in Zambia, Nigeria and Turkey. It also supplies to corporate giants such as Steel Authority of India, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Tata group, Adani group, Jindal group, Vedanta, Reliance Power, NHPC, Aditya Birla Group, etc. SIL is the largest exporter of explosives from India, supplying to more than 22 countries. The company has also taken a strategic leap into the defence sector recently through the execution of some early orders in this space. Looking forward, the defence foray offers immense scope for growth. Solar Industries is the India’s largest manufacturer of industrial explosives and initiating systems. Having complete explosives range with a presence across product value chain. It has the World’s largest single-location cartridge manufacturing facility at Chakdoh near Nagpur. It is the India’s first private sector company to obtain the licence for setting up manufacturing facilities for HMX (a warhead explosive) and HMX compounded products. SIL has displayed similar attributes in the past decade since its listing on the bourses. SIL became the largest player in 1 mt domestic industrial explosives market over a period of past 10 years with its volume market share at 2.5 x from 10 % in FY06 to 25 % in FY16. SIL has grown at higher-than-industry rate over the same period. SIL’s average volume CAGR across bulk and cartridge explosive, detonator and detonator fuse was 13 % over FY09-FY16 against Indian explosives industry’s average volume CAGR of 7 % over the same period. The company successfully managed to keep competition at bay on account of its ability and intention to keep investing in the business, rationalise the cost structure to remain cost-competitive in fact it achieved the leadership position by going for backward integration, widening its product portfolio and maintaining strong client relationship. SIL offers the widest portfolio of products with end-to-end solutions and maintains its numero uno position as an industrial explosives and initiating systems supplier to largest consumer of explosives in the country, Coal India, for the past few years. SIL satisfies nearly 30 % of the explosives requirement of Coal India. Moreover, after opening up of India’s defence sector for private players, the company is eyeing multibillion dollar Indian defence space which is being catered to by either government owned defence establishments or through imports. After consolidating its position in India, the company successfully moved to other big explosive-consuming markets by setting up plants in Zambia, Nigeria and Turkey over the past five years. It is now in the process of setting up a plant in South Africa. The company has realised the importance of global opportunity (more than US$10bn) and taken steps to grab the share through overseas expansion and focus on exports. SIL possesses wide moats in the form of industry leadership, significant entry barriers, optimal product mix and carefully pre-planned capacity additions to benefit the most from the revival in mining & infrastructure activity. Even in the export & overseas business, SIL has just scratched the surface of growth, with many more un-penetrated markets yet to be explored. New business segments like defence business will further solidify SIL’s business model at a time when government’s prerogative is to indigenise defence manufacturing, which will allow SIL to scale the defence business at a faster pace. Even during times of moderate business environment, SIL had witnessed robust revenue CAGR of 40 %, over FY12-16, backed by a strong 15 % volume CAGR (bulk + cartridge) coupled with capacity expansion and market share gains. This speaks for the pedigree of the management and business model that has evolved over time and reiterates our confidence on the company to capture onto the upcoming opportunity with the revival in industrial activity. Hence, SIL is a rare combination of excellent growth track record, proactive management, conservative leverage approach, expanding margins & return ratios and a 20 %+ growth guidance from the management for the next three years. The company is expected to generate better cash flows with cash flow from operations (CFO) improving from Rs. 157.3 crore in FY15 to Rs. 210 crore in FY18E. CFO is likely to remain subdued in FY17E due to higher capex of Rs. 135 crore in FY16-17E. The same is likely to continue as the management has guided for higher capex of Rs. 200 crore for FY17E-18E. The FCF is also expected to grow to Rs. 50 crore in FY18E. The CFO/EBITDA, a measure of quality of earnings, is also expected to stabilise at 0.5 x in FY18E. With the robust performance, the company looks forward to a future full of promise. All the sectors which form company’s consumer caucus - mining, infrastructure and construction - are witnessing policy changes that are expected to result in structural strengthening and phenomenal growth. This gives plenty of reason to be optimistic. The defence sector too, which is moving strategically from imports to domestic sourcing of its requirements, has opened up colossal opportunities for company. At the current market price of Rs. 681.10, the stock is trading at a PE of 32.74 x FY17E and 25.22 x FY18E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 20.80 in FY17E and Rs. 27.00 in FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. 

KEY FINANCIALSFY15FY16FY17EFY18E
SALES ( Crs) 1,344.701,532.801,757.402,149.80
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)147.40166.10188.30244.80
EPS () 16.3018.4020.8027.00
PE (x)39.7035.2031.1023.90
P/BV (x)7.506.705.805.00
EV/EBITDA (x)24.2020.7017.9011.20
ROE (%) 20.5020.2020.1022.50
ROCE (%)16.2018.0018.5020.60

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This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible. 


As a Disclosures I Confirm that : 
I confirm that I shall not deal or trade in securities mentioned in this article within thirty days before and five days after the publication of this article. I also confirm that I will not deal or trade directly or indirectly in securities mentioned in this article in a manner contrary to the ideas put forth in the article. I have not received any financial compensation for writing this article.
 

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