UNION BUDGET 2013 - 14 : HIGHLIGHTS !!!

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ESTIMATED TO GROW AT 5.5 %, +/- 0.5 % IN FY13 - 14. 

AT CURRENT PRICES THE ADVANCE GDP ESTIMATE OF 2012 - 13 IS Rs. 93,88,876 LAKHS CR AND AT 2004-05 PRICES ITS AT Rs. 54,82,111 LAKHS CR.

FY14 TOTAL SUBSIDES AT Rs. 2,31,000 CR.

FY14 FERTILIZER SUBSIDIES AT  Rs. 66,000 CR.

FY14 FOOD SUBSIDIES AT  Rs. 90,000 CR.

FY14 OIL & PETROL SUBSIDIES AT  Rs. 65,000 CR.

FY14 FISCAL DEFICIT AT Rs. 5,42,000 CR.

FY14 GROSS MARKET LOANS ARE Rs. 6,29,000 CR.

STATE PF ARE Rs. 10,000 CR.

EXTERNAL AID ARE Rs.10,560 CR.

OTHERS ARE Rs. 12,297 CR.

THE CENTER'S EXPENDITURE 2013 - 14 IS PROJECTED AT Rs. 14,90,925 Cr.

IN FLOW (Rs. in Cr)
CORPORATE TAX	4,19,520
INCOME TAX	2,47,639
CUSTOMS DUTY	1,87,308
EXCISE DUTY	1,97,554
SERVICE TAX	1,80,141
TAX OF UNION TERRITORY	2,758
TAX RECEIPTS FOR CENTRAL	8,84,078
STATE's SHARE IN TAX RECEIPTS	3,50,842
TOTAL TAX RECEIPTS	12,34,920

NON TAX RECEIPTS	AMOUNT
INTEREST RECEIPTS	17,764
DIVIDENDS & PROFITS	73,866
EXTERNAL GRANTS	1,456
OTHER NON TAX RECEIPTS	78,000
RECEIPTS OF UNION TERRITORY	1,166
TOTAL	1,72,252

NON DEBT CAPITAL RECEIPTS	66,468
RECOVERY OF LOANS & ADVANCES	10,654
MISC. CAPITAL RECEIPTS	55,814

* Out of the Tax Receipts the Center has to keep aside for Calamity & Contingency Fund of Rs. 4,800 Crs.

FISCAL DEFICIT (In Rs.)	AMOUNT
MARKET LOAN	4,84,000
EXTERNAL AID	10,560
STATE PF	10,000
OTHERS	12,297
TOTAL	5,42,499

OUT FLOW (Rs. in Cr)
PLAN EXPENDITURE	5,55,322
NON PLAN EXPENDITURE	11,09,975
OR
REVENUE EXPENDITURE	14,36,169
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE	2,29,129
DEFENSE	2,03,672
CENTRAL PLAN OUT LAY	99,030
GRANTS TO STATES & UTs	76,981
PENSIONS	70,726
INTEREST PAYMENTS	3,70,684
LOANS TO PSUs	417
OTHER GENERAL SERVICES	22,903
LESS OTHERS	302
CENTRAL PLAN	3,20,038
POSTAL DEFICIT	6,717
EXPENSES of UTs with out Legislature	4,395
NON PLAN CAPITAL OUTLAY	30,131
ECONOMIC SERVICES	24,334
GRANTS TO FOREIGN GOVT.	4,114
CENTRAL PLAN AID TO STATES	1,23,222
SOCIAL SERVICES	23,114
POLICE SERVICE	40,895

SOME MORE POINTS FROM BUDGET:-

• No change in Income tax rates and slabs.
• Imposed Surcharge of 10% on person whose taxable income exceeds Rs.1 Cr/yr. This will apply to Individuals, HUF's, Firms & entities with similar tax status.
• The additional surcharge will be force for only one year i.e. FY 2013-14.
• Increased surcharge from 5% to 10% on domestic companies whose taxable income exceeds Rs.10 Cr/yr, in case of foreign companies who pay the higher rate of Corp tax the surcharge will increase from 2% to 5%.
• Effective Tax rate @33.99% for domestic co. having income more than Rs.10 Cr.
• Effective MAT rate for Domestic co @21%.
• DDT surcharge increased from 5% to 10%.
• Tax credit of Rs. 2000 for income upto Rs.5 lakhs.
• To impose TDS @1% on the value of the transfer of Immovable property wherein consideration exceeds Rs. 50 lakhs, Agriculture land will be exempted.
• STT on Equity futures reduced from 0.017 to 0.01 %.
• STT on MF/ETF redemptions at fund counter reduced from 0.25 to 0.001%.
• STT on MF/ETF purchase/sale on exchange reduced from 0.1 to 0.001% only on seller.
• To levy CTT on non-agriculture commodities futures contracts at 0.01% of the price of the trade. CTT will be allowed as deduction if the income from such transaction forms part of business income.
• Import duty on Set Top Boxes raised from 5% to 10%.
• Import duty on Luxury Cars & vehicles & Yachts raised from 75% to 100%.
• Duty free Gold limit increased to Rs.50,000 in case of Male passenger & Rs.1,00,000 in case of female passenger subject to conditions.
• Excise duty on SUV's increased from 27% to 30%, not applicable to SUV registered as Taxis.
• Effective custom duty on SUV's increased from 138% to 178%.
• Vehicle Parking now comes under Service Tax.
• PSU Banks to get Rs. 14,000 Cr for Recap & Capital infusion of Rs. 12517 Cr by FY13.
• Home Loans upto Rs. 25 lakhs to be allowed additional deduction of interest of Rs.1 lakh.
• To set up India's first Women's Bank as a PSB with Rs. 1000 Cr as initial capital. It will obtain the necessary approval & banking licence by October 2013.
• FY14 disinvestment target Rs. 40,000 Crs.
• Farm GDP was 3.6 % in 11th Plan in GDP growth of 5.6 %.
• GOV. will need $75 billion to finance Current Account Deficit over next 2 years.
• Investor holding stake of 10% or less in a company will be treated as FII.
• Investor holding stake of more than 10% in a company will be treated as FDI.
• FII will be permitted to use their investment in corporate bonds & Gov. securities as collateral to meet their margin requirements.
• Small & medium enterprise incl. Start Ups will be permitted to list on SME Exchange without being required to make an Initial Public Offer,but the issue will be restricted to informed investor.
• FII will be permitted to trade in Exchange Traded Currency Derivative to the extent of their Indian Rupee Exposure in India.
• Stock Exchanges to be allowed to introduce Dedicated Debt Exchange.
• JNNURM will be given Rs. 14873 Cr,this will help in purchase of 10,000 buses by hilly stations.
• More institutions be allowed to raise Tax Free Bonds upto a total sum of Rs.50,000 Cr.
• Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme to be liberalised -1st time investors can invest   into Mutual Funds &Listed shares for 3 successive years. The income limit will be raised from Rs. 10,00,000 to Rs. 12,00,000.
• Investment allowance @15% to manufacturing company that invests more than Rs. 100 Cr in plant & machinery during 1.4.2013 to 31.3.2015.
• To introduce Inflation Indexed Bonds or Inflation Index National Security Certificates.
• To provide Low Cost finance to viable renewable energy projects and Generation based incentives for Wind Energy projects.
• Govt. proposes to expand FM Radio services to 294 more cities &about 839 new FM radio channels will be auctioned in 2013-14, All cities having a population of more than 1 lkh will be covered by private FM radio   services.
• Defence sector allocated Rs. 2.03 lakh Cr.
• Corporate surcharge reduced from 7.5 % to 5 %.
• Dividend from foreign subsidiary to Indian companies down from 30 % to 15 %

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FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY:UNLOCKING VALUES !!!

Scrip Code: 526881 / FINANTECH

CMP:  Rs. 929.95; Buy at every dips.
Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 1130.40; STOP LOSS – Rs. 855.55; Market Cap: Rs. 4,285.07 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1221.90 / Rs. 551.55

Total Shares: 4,60,78,537 shares; Promoters : 2,10,42,582 shares –45.67 %; Total Public holding : 2,50,35,955 shares – 54.33 %; Book Value: Rs. 532.75; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 112.37; Div: 400 % ; P/E: 8.27 times; Ind. P/E: 21.00; EV/EBITDA: 5.75.

Total Debt: 562.72 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 4,191.79 Cr.

FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES (INDIA) LIMITED: Financial Technologies was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Mumbai, India. The company was earlier known as e-Xchange on the Net, in Aug 2001 the company changed its name to Financial Technologies India Ltd. Financial Technologies (India) Limited provides technology solution, intellectual property and domain expertise for digital transaction and financial markets across all asset classes including equities, commodities, currencies and bonds. It has set up 8 exchange ventures and 6 ecosystems venture – MCX, MCX-SX, IEX, DGCX (DUBAI), GBOT Mauritius, IBS FOREX, NSEL and SNX are all exchange ventures, while NBHC, Ticker Plant, Infovending, Atom technologies, Riskrat Consulting, FT Knowledge Management Company (FTME) are ecosystem ventures. It provides exchange, brokerage, messaging, consulting, and connectivity solutions. The company’s exchange and trading technology platform creates electronic, organized, and regulated financial markets for the asset classes and investor classes. The company offers comprehensive end-to-end solutions for the securities industry vertical encompassing the entire trade lifecycle of pre-trade, trade and post trade processing. In Brokerage Solutions its main product is ODIN. During March 2012, the company’s exchange technology (ET) division deployed energy solution Power Automated Risk & Matching System (PowerARMS) to enable trading risk management and clearing & settlement for Day Ahead Market at the Indian Energy Exchange. Financial Technology India Ltd is compared with Bursa Malaysia Berhad of Malaysia & Daiichi Commodities Company Limited of Japan.  

Investment Rationale:

Financial Technologies (India) Limited (FINANTECH) is the flagship company of the Financial Technologies Group co-promoted by Jignesh Shah an electronic & telecommunications engineer from Kandivali a small suburb of Mumbai who was the man behind the creation of Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange and Singapore Mercantile Exchange, he started his career with BSE in its Rs. 100 Cr ambitious project to built BOLT. FINANTECH set out by introducing India's first derivatives trading platform, with the launch of ODIN in 1995, which enjoys 80% market share. It powers the Group's exchanges with its technology, and has demonstrated ample expertise in creating robust solutions for exchanges across asset classes and geographies. FINANTECH is one of the leading software and technology providers to institutional investors and their related counterparts. Its technology vertical is sub-divided into four solution suites: (1) Exchange Solutions, (2) Brokerage Solutions, (3) Messaging Solutions, and (4) Consulting Solutions. FINANTECH has graduated from technology to Exchanges to Ecosystem, it ventured into a Regulated business and obtained license by multiple regulators and has become a Market leader across ventures. FINANTECH further integrated by setting up its own exchange - Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) a state-of-the-art electronic commodity futures exchange, offering futures trading in 47 commodities. FINANTECH further promoted MCX-SX India's third full-fledged Equity stock exchange which was recently launched by the present finance minister Mr.P. Chidambaram on 9^th Feb 2013. Like BSE and NSE, it has now from 11^th February 2013 started offering trading in equities, equity derivatives and other asset classes. Currently, MCX-SX index is named SX-40 comprising 40 diversified stocks & offers trading in equity cash & futures contracts & in bonds etc. MCX -SX has 1,116 companies listed on it as compared to 1,662 on the NSE & 5,195 on BSE, with around 700 member out of which 405 members have received approvals from SEBI rest to follow soon. Its international exchange ventures - Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX), Global Board of Trade (GBOT) and Bahrain Financial Exchange (BFX) - are relatively new and still in investment mode, growing on a low base in their respective regions. Its newest exchange venture, Bourse Africa, is all set to commence operations. It will be Africa's first commodities spot and multi-asset derivatives exchange, equipped with a central counter party (CCP) clearing house and depository platform. FINANTECH four ecosystem ventures, which together addresses upstream and downstream opportunities in the financial market which are - National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC); Atom; TickerPlant; Financial Technologies Knowledge Management Company (FTKMC) a leading provider of solutions and services in the realm of financial sector knowledge. It offers numerous products and services in the areas of executive education, financial literacy, financial certification, research, consultancy and advisory.

Outlook and Valuation:

FINANTECH is a unique play on end-to-end presence in the ecosystem of stock exchanges and provides technology solutions for the financial markets. With the start of MCX –SX the 132 years of legacy of BSE - Asia's oldest stock exchange with 1,405 brokers & the out performance of NSE which was started in 1992 is being challenged. NSE being a relatively new entity by then was more receptive to innovation. NSE quickly realized the importance of IT and innovative products to meet the growing sophistication of the financial markets. NSE raced ahead to rule market share charts. Due to technology expertise of FINANTECH which gives the company a strong economic moat. An Economic Moat protects a company's profits from being attacked by a combination of multiple business forces. Exchanges globally have been enjoying the status of winner takes all businesses, with minimal competition. Financial Technologies forward integration ranges from trading platform to exchanges to complementary ecosystem ventures facilitate a distinctive value proposition to its customers, these cannot be easily replicated in the market and hence FINANTECH enjoys a healthy competitive advantage and sustainable profitability and which provides it Economic Moat to the company. Technology is the key requirement for an exchange hence FINANTECH is the technology supplier for all its exchanges, except Dubai Gold Commodity Exchange. Exchanges are largely a network business. The network effect lends sustainability to the business model and acts as an entry barrier. The first mover clearly holds the edge in such a scenario. The SOTP valuation of FINANTECH's comes at Rs. 1,413.12 per share and applying a holding company discount of 20% to the entities wherein FINANTECH is holding a majority stake and /or will go ahead and unlock value through sale of stake in the future comes the target price for FINANTECH at Rs.1,130.40, which implies 21.55% upside to the valuation. There are some potential triggers in the near term that could drive the valuations of the stock higher which are the Passage of FCRA bill - which allows trading of new products like options, indices on MCX, driving volumes and valuation for MCX, and consequently, FINANTECH, the Stake sale in IEX (from 33% to 26%) - which would help value unlocking in the same and the Volumes performance at MCX-SX post launch on February 9th, the valuation of which will get embedded in FINANTECH's price. At the Cmp of Rs. 929.95 the stock trades at 20.26 x P/E on estimated EPS of Rs. 45.90 for FY13E and 19.74 x the P/E on estimated EPS of Rs. 47.10 for FY14E. One can buy FINANTECH with at target price of Rs. 1130 for medium to long term .

SOTP Valuation :-

Business Subsidiary FY13E	Value Per Share (in Rs.)
FINANTECH Standalone	543.00
MCX	341.12
MCX-SX	245.00
IEX	91.00
NSEL	106.00
SMX	61.00
OTHER INVESTMENTS	26.00
TOTAL	1413.12
Disc. to Holding co.(ex. FTECH stand.%)	20.00 %
TOTAL	1130.40

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	425.50	390.90	482.50	533.40
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	490.90	211.50	216.80	250.30
EPS (Rs.)	106.50	45.90	47.10	54.30
PE (x)	10.10	23.50	22.90	19.80
P/BV (x)	2.00	1.90	1.80	1.70
EV/EBITDA (x)	20.20	22.30	15.50	13.40
ROE (%)	21.70	8.30	8.00	8.60
ROCE (%)	6.00	5.30	5.40	7.30

I would buy FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES LTD with a price target of Rs. 1130.40 for Medium to Long term. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 855.55 on every purchase. 

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SESAGOA : SUCCESS THROUGH RIGHT CHANNELS !!!

Scrip Code: 500295 / SESAGOA

CMP:  Rs. 170.65; Accumulate at Rs. 165 - Rs. 170 levels.
Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 208; STOP LOSS – Rs. 157.00; Market Cap: Rs. 14,831.21 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 270.00 / Rs. 145.00

Total Shares: 86,91,01,423 shares; Promoters : 47,91,13,619 shares –55.13 %; Total Public holding : 38,99,87,804 shares – 44.87 %; Book Value: Rs. 148.58; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 10.86; Div: 400 % ; P/E: 15.71 times; Ind. P/E: 16.99; EV/EBITDA: 6.82.

Total Debt: 3,961.00 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 18,478.00 Cr.

SESA GOA LIMITED:  SESA GOA Ltd was incorporated in 1954 and is based in Panji, Goa, India. SESAGOA is engaged in exploration, mining and processing of iron-ore. The Company operates in three business segments namely iron ore, metallurgical coke and pig iron. The pig iron business focuses on the domestic Indian market, especially to foundries and steel mills in western and southern India. It also exports to the Middle-East and South East Asia. SESA GOA is India's largest producer & exporter of iron ore in the private sector which currently accounts for 1.5% of world trade in iron ore & is amongst lowest cost iron ore mining company in the world. Its mining operations in India include Codli, Sonshi/Surla & Bicholim mines located in Goa & Narrain mine located in Karnataka. Sesagoa exported approx. 5 mn tons of iron ore, fines and lumps to Japan, China, Europe. It also has mining interests in Western Cluster Iron Ore project, Liberia. In addition, the company produces basic, foundry and spheroidal grades of pig iron to steel mills and foundries as well as slag as a by-product to the cement industry and metallurgical coke, primarily low ash coke for foundries, blast furnaces & ferrous alloy industries. Further it engages in generation & distribution of power to Goa Electricity department & owns 30 MW power plants in Goa that utilizes the waste heat gases from its coke making & pig iron facilities as well as 30 MW waste heat recovery power plant.  The company sells its iron ore primarily in China, Japan, Korea, India, and Europe. In April 2007, Anil Agarwal – Vedanta Resources acquired a controlling stake of 51% in SESA GOA from Mitsui & Co, Japan, for US$ 981 million. In April 2011, the Company acquired 10.4% stake in Cairn India Ltd (CIL) from Petronas International Corporation Ltd (Petronas). In March 2011, Sesa Goa acquired the assets of steel plant unit of Bellary Steel and Alloys Limited (BSAL). SESA GOA is compared with NMDC Limited, Godawari Power & Ispat Limited in India and with APAC Resources Limited of Hong Kong & with Ferrexpo Plc of United Kingdom globally.

Investment Rationale:

SESA GOA (SESA) has iron ore reserves and resources of 374 m tons in Goa and Karnataka. Goa's ore is medium grade and easy to extract without blasting and crushing. The iron ore from Karnataka is of high grade but found in rocky form, which necessitates blasting and crushing. SESA is India's largest private sector iron ore exporter and is an important Indian arm of Global natural resource player VEDANTA Resources PLC. 

In February 2012 Vedanta Resources Plc restructured its subsidiaries by announcing merger of Sterlite Industries into Sesa Goa in a 5:3 swap ratio. It involved transfer of Vedanta’s 70.5% stake in Vedanta Aluminum Ltd, 38.8% stake in Cairn India, 94.8% stake in Malco to new entity “SESA-STERLITE” along with the associated debt of US$5.9 billion. The company received approvals from Competition Commission of India in April 2012. The proposal received approval from 99 % from Vedanta shareholders, 89% of Sterlite shareholders & 79% of Sesagoa shareholders. This paved away the difficulties for it getting Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) approval & seeking court approvals. Post merger, Sesa-Sterlite will be one of the global commodity giant and its' earnings will be less volatile, supported by more stable operations  from Hindustan Zinc and Cairn India. Post merger Sesa-Sterlite will have contribution of earnings of about 39% from Oil & Gas; 29% from Zinc & Lead; 17% from Iron Ore; 6% from Copper; 4% from Silver; 3% from Aluminium and 2% from Energy. As on mining from Indian operations, the cost of mining and transportation is significantly lower in Goa (majority of operations) than in Karnataka and Orissa. Further, Indian miners are at an advantage over Brazilian miners due to their proximity to China, the largest customer. However, the current suspension of mining in Goa & Karnataka has resulted in nil production from these mines. Supreme court hearing is yet to start for Goa mining ban.

Outlook and Valuation:

SESA has acquired the remaining 49 % stake in WCL, Liberia at Rs. 184 Cr. Shipments are expected to start from 4QFY14, which will boost its earnings. SESA – STERLITE as a merged entity looks very attractive in valuations. Though uncertainties regarding the iron ore business persist, the impact on valuations is minor in view of the imminent merger with Sterlite Industries. The High Court of Mumbai, Goa bench is currently hearing shareholders' arguments against the merger. The company has already presented its case. The Chennai High Court has heard both sides and verdict is expected in this month of February 2013 .Though uncertainties regarding the iron ore business persist, the impact on valuations is minor in view of the imminent merger with Sterlite Industries and other group companies. Hearings have commenced in the High Courts of Mumbai and Chennai. All other approvals from shareholders and other courts in India and abroad have been received. The new entity “SESA-STERLITE” on Some of The Part valuations comes at Rs. 208 which transfers into the market capital of around Rs. 61,696 Cr. On merged entity basis, & at CMP of Rs. 170.65 the stock is trading at 4.35 x FY13E EPS of Rs. 39.20 and 5.06 x FY14E EPS of Rs. 33.70. Global peers including BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Teck Resources are trading at 8 x one year forward earnings & 4.2 x one year forward the EV/EBITDA. Considering the holding company structure and operational constraints SESA-STERLITE could fetch a lower valuation as compare to its global peers. One can buy SESAGOA Limited with a target price of Rs. 208.00 for Medium to Long term investment & for shorter term it should be Rs. 185.00.

SOTP Valuation :-

Business Subsidiary FY13E	Value Per Share (in Rs.)
SESAGOA Standalone	(-118.00)
HINDUSTAN ZINC	145.00
BALCO LTD	4.00
ZINC INTERNATIONAL	39.00
CAIRN INDIA	144.00
OTHER SEGMENTS	(-6.00)
TOTAL	208.00

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	68,369.80	71,674.70	72,998.00	76,084.10
NET PROFIT(Rs. Crs)	10,279.30	11,627.10	9,983.20	9,827.60
EPS (Rs.)	34.70	39.20	33.70	33.10
PE (x)	5.10	4.50	5.30	5.40
P/BV (x)	0.80	0.70	0.70	0.60
EV/EBITDA (x)	5.40	5.50	5.10	4.80
ROE (%)	17.00	16.50	13.20	11.90
ROCE (%)	25.30	24.80	13.30	12.60

I would buy SESAGOA LTD with a price target of Rs. 208 for Medium to Long term and for Shorter Term the target is Rs. 185.00 . As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 157.00 on every purchase.

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ULTRA TECH CEMENTS: CEMENTING STRONGLY AHEAD !!!

Scrip Code: 532538 / ULTRACEMCO

CMP:  Rs. 1837.75; Buy at every dips.
Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 2066; STOP LOSS – Rs. 1690.73; Market Cap: Rs. 50,369.81 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 2154.20 / Rs. 1212.05

Total Shares: 27,40,84,137 shares; Promoters : 17,36,05,057 shares –63.34 %; Total Public holding : 10,04,79,080 shares – 36.66 %; Book Value: Rs. 469.06; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 102.00; Div: 80.00 % ; P/E: 18.17 times; Ind. P/E: 19.84; EV/EBITDA: 10.02.

Total Debt: 3,808.13 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 54,177.94 Cr.

ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED: ULTRACEMCO was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Mumbai, India. It was formerly known as Ultra Tech Cemco Limited and changed its name to ULTRATECH CEMENT Ltd on October 2004. It’s a subsidiary of Grasim Industries Ltd from Aditya Birla Group. The Company is engaged in the business of cement and cement related products. It manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland Cement, Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement and Portland Pozzalana Cement. UltraTech Cement Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of cement in India and internationally. Its products include ready mix concrete; building products, including waterproofing solutions, polymer modified mortar, lightweight autoclaved aerated concrete blocks, thin layer jointing mortar, and ready mix plaster; and white cement. The Company also manufactures ready mix concrete (RMC). UltraTech Cement is an exporter of cement clinker. The Company has an annual capacity of 23.1 million tons. The Company has 11 integrated plants, one white cement plant, one clinkerisation plant in the United Arab Emirates, 15 grinding units - 11 in India, two in the United Arab Emirates, one in Bahrain and Bangladesh each and five terminals - four in India and one in Sri Lanka. In the 2011, its wholly owned subsidiary, UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited (UCMEIL) acquired ETA Star Cement together with its operations in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Bangladesh and acquired management control. On July 1, 2010, Samruddhi Cement Limited (Samruddhi) amalgamated with the Company.  The Company's subsidiaries include Dakshin Cement Limited, UltraTech Cement Lanka (Pvt.) Ltd. and UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited. The company is compared to Ambuja Cements Ltd, ACC Limited and Rain Commodities Limited domestically.

Investment Rationale:

Ultratech Cement Limited is India's largest manufacturer of cement with an installed capacity of 52 Million Tonnes Per Annum. Ultratech’s massive 10 mtpa capacity addition program is nearing completion. The 1 mtpa Surat grinding unit is expected to be commissioned by 4QFY13. Ultratech board has sanctioned an additional capex of Rs. 1000 Cr towards modernization and setting up of Ready Mix Concrete (RMC) plants across the country. This brings the total capex under implementation to about Rs. 11400 Cr. The Company has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement with the shareholders of Gotan Limestone Khanij Udyog Pvt. Ltd (GKU) and has acquired GKU’s entire equity stake. Consequently, GKU has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company with effect from July 23^rd, 2012. Through this acquisition Ultratech is looking to enhance its white cement capacity. Ultratech’s revenues for Q3FY13 improved by 6 % YoY led by improvement in cement realizations. However, on a sequential basis, cement realizations witnessed a marginal decline. An average cement prices at the end of Q3FY13 witnessed a correction sequentially and stood at Rs. 284/bag. Correspondingly, company's realizations (including RMC) during Q3FY13 stood at Rs. 4690 per tonne as against Rs. 4760 per tonne during Q2FY13 adjusting with white cement, wall care putty and cement export revenues. The combined grey cement and clinker sales volume stood at 9.62 MT during Q3FY13 as against 9.7 MT during Q3FY12. Export cement and clinker volumes stood at 0.32 MT at approx. price of $55/tonne for cement and approximately $45/tonne for clinker. Company is in the process of setting up 4.8 MT plant at Raipur, Chattisgarh and 4.4 MT plant at Malkhed, Karnataka along with a captive power plant of 75 MW and waste heat recovery plant of 45 MW. These new capacities are likely to get operational by mid FY14. The company is expected to dispatch about 41 MT for FY13 translating into revenues of around Rs. 20,000 Cr for FY13 & for FY14 the estimates for volumes are expected to grow to 48.9 MT with expected revenues of Rs. 25,500 Cr for FY14. 

Outlook and Valuation:

Ultratech's revenues for Q3FY13 improved by 6 % YoY led by improvement in cement realizations. However, on a sequential basis, cement realizations witnessed a marginal decline. Company’s operating margin for Q3FY13 remained same on yearly basis despite the higher cost and improvement in cement prices. The Net profit performance was boosted by strong operating margins and higher other income. UltraTech’s average realizations were up 8 % YoY to Rs. 4,760 per ton. At 10.2 m tons, volumes for grey cement, clinker, white cement & wall putty dipped by 1.5 % YoY but up 7.1 % QoQ. Grey cement sales were up by 7.1 % QoQ which are in line with the industry growth rate. RMC recorded revenue of Rs. 500 Cr up by 47 % YoY and white cement and wall putty recorded Rs. 400 Cr up by 18 % YOY. Ultra Tech’s Average EBITDA/ton stood at Rs. 1,005/ton. The increase in the price of diesel and railway freight mainly led to an 18 % YoY rise in raw material cost and a 7 % YoY rise in freight. Benefit of softening coal prices was partly offset by the rupee depreciation against the dollar, leading only to a minor dip of 2 % YoY in power & fuel costs per ton. Company’s higher other income also boosted Profit after Tax growth of 9 % YoY. Company’s management expects cement demand to grow over 8 % in the long term even as the surplus scenario will continue in next three years. The two new units at Chattisgarh and Karnataka are likely to start by early FY14, taking total capacity to 59.5m tons. During 3QFY13, the Ministry of Coal, de-allocated the company’s coal block (allocated jointly with a JV partner) in Chattisgarh. The company has filed against the order and obtained a stay in this regards. The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has slapped 11 cement companies with a fine of Rs. 6,714.83 crore for price cartelisation, the highest penalty ever imposed by the fledgling, but increasingly assertive, anti-trust regulator. 11 firms were found guilty of price rigging. These 11 firms include ACC, Ultratech Cement, Grasim Cement (now a part of Ultratech), Jaypee Cements, Lafarge India, Jk Cements, India Cements, Madras Cement, Century Cements, Binani Cements and Ambuja Cements. The Industry body Cement Manufactures Association has also been fined. These 11 firms and the association are drawing up plans to question the legality of the case when it comes up for hearing before the Competition Appellate Tribunal (COMPAT the 3 member tribunal) on 29 January 2013. In any case any adverse decision would mean the blow of Rs.1175.40 Cr on Ultratech which is 6 % - 7 % of its total sales. Cement prices rose to all time high of Rs.330/bag in middle of 2012, & looking at the strong recovery going forward cement company will be have boost in their profitability. The clarity on the CCI investigation report should be a major trigger for the stock. At current price of Rs. 1837.75, the stock is trading at 19.2 x P/E on estimated EPS of Rs. 95.30 for FY13E and 16 X P/E on the estimated EPS of Rs. 114.80 for FY14E. Ultratech Cements is a good buy at the current market price & one can ACCUMULATE the stock and is advised to use declines in the stock to buy with a long term view with a target price of Rs. 2066.00 for Medium to Long term investment.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	18,158.30	20,705.50	24,384.50	29,484.40
NET PROFIT(Rs. Crs)	2,369.60	2,611.40	3,147.00	3,850.00
EPS (Rs.)	86.50	95.30	114.80	140.50
PE (x)	22.10	20.00	16.60	13.60
P/BV (x)	4.10	3.50	3.00	2.50
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.10	11.40	8.90	6.80
ROE (%)	20.10	18.60	19.00	19.60
ROCE (%)	17.60	18.00	19.50	21.20

I would buy UltraTech Cements LTD with a price target of Rs. 2066 for Medium to Long term. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 1690.73 on every purchase. 

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold Ultra tech Cements LTD in my investment portfolio.

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